McCain wins South Carolina straw poll

March 2, 2007 – 5:09 pm

Looks like John McCain pulled it out in the late reporting precincts. Jonathan Martin has a specific explanation for why Duncan Hunter performed well.

There’s a clear gap here. I think that this tells us that Rudy Giuliani and McCain and the clear frontrunners. Mitt Romney’s 2nd-tier performance is quite shocking considering that he spent money on direct mail, phone calls, and ads.

CPAC next. My predictions are mentioned by Robert Bluey. Rudy and McCain, first and second.

Regardless of the actual meaning of straw polls, I think that this weekend, between CPAC and Spartanburg will act like the first Ames.

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Rudy wins Spartanburg Straw poll

March 2, 2007 – 7:04 am

The results here are wild:

Candidate Votes
Giuliani 158
Hunter 152
McCain 116
Brownback 83
Romney 80
Huckabee 21

Some thoughts on this.

First, this is a coup for Rudy Giuliani. Hands down.

Second, my sense is that the Duncan Hunter result isn’t so much for him as for "a conservative". This would jive with the Novak story that I discussed yesterday.

Third, what happened to Romney and Huckabee? Each for their own reasons, they should be performing better than this. If this continues both are in deep, deep trouble.

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Newt, CPAC, and the conservative leader

February 26, 2007 – 2:35 pm

Newt Gingrich just blasted out an email, reprinted here, and several things jumped out at me:

First, Newt is wrapping himself in the banner of a conservative movement based on ideas by invoking both Reagan and Goldwater. He says, "This may be the most important CPAC since Ronald Reagan helped launch the annual gathering in 1975", and "I just read Ambassador Bill Middendorf’s A Glorious Disaster: Barry Goldwater’s campaign and the Origins of the Conservative Movement (read my review here), and he reminded me of the ferocity of the 1964 Lyndon Johnson campaign."

Second, Newt is collecting contact information and communicating with attendees throughout the convention:

What is the Winning the Future Text Message Challenge? It’s a chance for College Republicans, state delegations, Facebook groups — anyone attending CPAC — to go head-to-head to see who knows the most about the ideas and principles that have shaped the conservative movement.

and:

To register your team, click here. Be certain to fill out all the required fields, and you’ll receive instructions on Thursday, the first day of CPAC.

In other words, Newt is going to be communicating about ideas to the attendees of the convention. But not just in his Saturday night speech, well after the straw poll closes, but throughout, starting when people register (and vote in the straw poll). I bet Newt is trying to win it.

Third, he is attacking the electability argument:

Running as a bland, business-as-usual Republican will be a dead loser. In 2006, the American people repudiated the GOP, because the idea of Republicans’ trying to manage the liberal welfare state they inherited from the Democrats was a dead loser.

The line about "trying to manage the liberal welfare state" is particularly devastating to Romney, I think. And:

Focusing on an anti-Hillary campaign will also be a dead loser. The Clintons are the most determined and intense politicians of our lifetime.

I think that Newt is trying to ride CPAC into a draft movement. Something similar to what Sam Brownback tried to do with the March for Life.

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Does “Rudy wins blogger straw poll!” matter? Yes!

February 14, 2007 – 7:16 pm

Patrick Ruffini pushed out the news that Rudy Giuliani won the February GOP bloggers straw poll. David All has one interpretation of what this means. I have another. It will be easier for Rudy to control stories about him, especially negative stories.

First of all, this means that when the going gets rough for Rudy — and it will — the blogs are going to be slower to pick it up. They are going to give him the benefit of the doubt. In other words, we aren’t going to see the same sort of blog attack on Rudy that we saw on Edwards last week.

This will give Rudy a buffer on controlling the debate. Drudge may run it, but if the blogs don’t swarm… how much is it really going to matter? Especially when people are aware that Drudge is biased?

Second, as Patrick indicates, and anecdotal evidence confirms, it appears that Rudy Giuliani is taking votes from Mitt Romney:

The shift from Captain’s Quarters readers, the largest blog participating in the poll, is striking. Last month, the results were Romney 31.6%, Giuliani 25.6%, Gingrich 23%. This month, the results were Giuliani 43.9%, Gingrich 21.4%, Romney 16.5%.

This is going to make it even harder for Romney. He can’t defend himself with just the XXXX for Mitt blogs and Hugh Hewitt.

In other words, Patrick’s job is going to be easier. Now, who knows what will happen when people start packing these, as David suggests.

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Gingrich taking the right flank?

November 13, 2006 – 8:01 am

A couple of weeks ago, the Virginia Conservative Convention was supposed to pick George Allen as the conservative front-runner in their straw poll. Obviously, that didn’t happen. But something quite interesting did happen. They picked Newt Gingrich instead (results below), and Newt even doubled Mitt Romney, who, somewhat implausibly, has been trying to position himself as the conservative candidate in this nomination fight. But it appears that people didn’t buy it.

Instead, Newt’s combination of record and ideas are offering conservatives a way forward right after the election. People are thinking “Bush lost Newt’s majority, and Newt can bring it back.” Now, is Newt electable in a general? I seriously doubt it. And, in the end, I do not believe that Newt is electable in a primary. But conservative activists love him.

Now party people don’t like Newt that much. But if Newt successfully takes the crown of “movement conservative”, then Romney is in deep, deep trouble.  Romney will lose votes to Newt. If the scrum contains Newt, Romney, Giuliani, and McCain, then Romney needs to be very, very worried. And if the party people get afraid of stopping the conservative movement candidate like Newt, then Romney is not going to be a reasonable place to settle.

Very, very interesting.

Results:

Votes	Percent
Newt Gingrich	45	31%
Mitt Romney	21	14%
Sam Brownback	18	12%
John McCain	18	12%
Mike Huckabee	11	8%
Rudy Giuliani	10	7%
Duncan Hunter	6	4%
Bill Frist	4	3%
Chuck Hagel	2	1%
George Pataki	2	1%

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McCain and Condi tie in NH’s Bow Straw Poll

August 20, 2006 – 11:57 pm

H/T Granite Grok.

The Bow Picnic and Straw Poll in NH took place on the 19th. The results:

  1. US Senator John McCain (R-Arizona)26%
  2. US Secretary of State Condoleezza “Condi” Rice (R-Cal.) 26%
  3. Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani (R-NY) 14%
  4. Governor George Pataki (R-New York) 12%
  5. US Senator George Allen (R-Virginia) 10%
  6. Governor Mitt Romney (R-Massachusetts) 10%
  7. Former US House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Georgia) 2%

What is so striking is that Romney is doing so poorly. Bow is in southern NH. Everyone knows who he is. And he campaigns up there all the time.

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Iowa State Fair Straw Polls Results: McCain wins; Clinton and Edwards tie

August 17, 2006 – 9:50 pm

GOP side:

  1. John McCain: 24%
  2. Rudy Giuiliani and Condi Rice: 20%
  3. Newt Gingrich: 10%

Dem side:

  1. Hillary Clinton and John Edwards tied at 34%
  2. Vilsack third.

Upshot: McCain is still the front runner. And Hillary just can’t go that high, we think.

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