Are the ads Romney’s last stand?

Last week, Mitt Romney released ads in a bunch of early states. I argued that Romney was going on the air because he was getting defined in the media. Now HotlineTV weighs in, arguing that Romney made a fundamental mistake with these ads because now, if Romney’s numbers don’t move, Romney will appear totally dead. Watch it:


I think this makes an important point. As I argued earlier, Romney is getting clobbered in the press. I’m talking about the AP, not the NY Times. Romneys only hope is fighting back with TV. But if he can’t do that and continues to get defined — if he cannot shift the discussion to his own terms — he is completely over.

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Mitt losing the media (update)

Update: A reader points out the date of this: Feb. 28, 2005. This is after Romney’s supposed conversion. Romney now says that he was pro-life when he gave this interview. Does this sound pro-life:

I’m personally pro-life but I won’t change the laws, you could describe that as - well I don’t think you can describe it in one hyphenated word.

Mitt Romney claims to defy description. I’m believing that.

After an overnight flight to Brussels, where I will be until Sunday, I sat down to read the DC news. And one of the first things that pops up is this review of Mitt Romney by Ruth Marcus:

I reprint so much of Romney’s answer (you can read or listen to the full exchange online) because its baroque circumlocutions seemed to say so much about him. It was hard to know what Romney actually thought about abortion rights other than that this was a political minefield it was best to avoid stepping into for as long as possible.

But it was also hard to see how a man with deeply held convictions on abortion rights — either for or against — could take a position so calibrated and inconclusive. Listening to Romney that day was like watching a chameleon in the fleeting moment that its color changes to suit its environment. Indeed, several months later, after vetoing a bill to expand access to emergency contraception, Romney wrote in the Boston Globe about how his views on the subject had "evolved and deepened."

I am struck by the language of this. The media respects and perhaps even fears (feared?) George Bush. Remember all the stories, now seemingly false, about the White House run with military style?

The media doesn’t respect Mitt Romney. They think he is phony. They think he is lying. In the end, you can defeat a media that opposes you. But can you lose a media that dismisses you as merely a fraud?

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Why is Mitt going on the air?

As everyone knows by now, Mitt Romney has gone on the air in a bunch of states. Here is the ad. Mitt is doing this because he has a problem. A recent post on the Gallup poll blog gets it right:

At the other end of the spectrum is Mitt Romney.  His name ID is just 36%.  But he already has gained significant negatives, to the point where his image ratio is 1.0, based on his 18% favorable and 18% unfavorable rating.   Relatively few people know who Romney is, but those who do are split on what they think about him.

This suggests that the people who are getting introduced to Romney aren’t doing it on his terms. Romney has bombed in the MSM. He is getting defined by other people. So he goes on the air himself.

It is worth pointing out how bad his numbers are. Compare him to Rudy Giuliani:

Rudy Giuliani has the best overall image ratio, 3.0, based on his current favorable rating of 66% and his unfavorable of just 22%.

In other words, even though only about 1/3rd of the population knows who Romney is, about the same number of people who disapprove of Rudy and Romney. If that pattern continues, it is the end for Romney.

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Does “Rudy wins blogger straw poll!” matter? Yes!

Patrick Ruffini pushed out the news that Rudy Giuliani won the February GOP bloggers straw poll. David All has one interpretation of what this means. I have another. It will be easier for Rudy to control stories about him, especially negative stories.

First of all, this means that when the going gets rough for Rudy — and it will — the blogs are going to be slower to pick it up. They are going to give him the benefit of the doubt. In other words, we aren’t going to see the same sort of blog attack on Rudy that we saw on Edwards last week.

This will give Rudy a buffer on controlling the debate. Drudge may run it, but if the blogs don’t swarm… how much is it really going to matter? Especially when people are aware that Drudge is biased?

Second, as Patrick indicates, and anecdotal evidence confirms, it appears that Rudy Giuliani is taking votes from Mitt Romney:

The shift from Captain’s Quarters readers, the largest blog participating in the poll, is striking. Last month, the results were Romney 31.6%, Giuliani 25.6%, Gingrich 23%. This month, the results were Giuliani 43.9%, Gingrich 21.4%, Romney 16.5%.

This is going to make it even harder for Romney. He can’t defend himself with just the XXXX for Mitt blogs and Hugh Hewitt.

In other words, Patrick’s job is going to be easier. Now, who knows what will happen when people start packing these, as David suggests.

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Season starting too early? For whom?

Yesterday the Politico published an interesting article about an interview with Karl Rove. The emphasis of the article was:

"I think it is going to mean that people develop a persona earlier and wear out their welcome earlier than they would," he told The Politico in an interview. "I think there’s going to come some point this year where people are going to basically be saying: ‘I’m largely disinterested in the contest.’ ‘’

I think that this has to be understood in proper context. I think that Rove’s point is that too much campaigning will make it hard to both maintain attention and maintain an image.

If that is the question, the problem for campaigns is: How do we stay in the headlines without campaigning all the time?

Right now, at least on the GOP side, only John McCain has an effective answer. And that’s probably why he isn’t in a rush to formally announce for President. His leadership in the Senate gets him headlines and puts him at the forefront of most of the debates, whether the debate is Iraq, immigration, spending, or anything else. Like a sitting President, McCain will be able to avoid campaigning by doing things that provide him the mantle of leadership.

Compare that to Mitt Romney, former governor of Michigan Massachusetts. Why would people be interested in what he had to say if he weren’t running for President? For Rudy Giuliani it’s a little different. People are interested in what he has to say on security and leadership. He simply needs to "be".

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Has the Boston Herald declared War on Romney?

In the last couple of days, Mitt Romney has been savaged — SAVAGED — by the Boston Herald, Boston’s conservative newspaper.

Some examples:

  • This morning, Casey Ross writes about all the MA Republicans who are supporting other candidates.
  • This morning, the editorial board wrote a scathing attack that ended with, "But he won’t get too far by treating voters as if they’re stupid."
  • This morning, one of their columnists attacks his dad’s car and the underlying metaphor for his candidacy. The title, "Anyone Behind the Wheel, Mitt?"
  • Yesterday, one of their columnists — who happed to be chief of staff to Bill Weld and Paul Cellucci — dumped on him for his fiscal record:
    • "we have seen what happens when a Republican governor refuses to take a no-new-taxes pledge, and then, not surprisingly, raises taxes"
    • "a fiscal phony"
    • To New Hampshire she says, "Democrat John Lynch scored better (receiving a B) on the annual fiscal report card issued by the libertarian Cato Institute than Romney (who got a C). The 2006 Cato report described Romney’s message that he was a governor who stood by a no-new-taxes pledge as “mostly a myth.
    • "Romney raised corporate taxes by an estimated $210 million and only backed down under pressure from pushing for even higher taxes on business."

If Massachusetts Republicans and conservatives continue to go after Romney for his record, he’s in deep, deep trouble.

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More national media interest in Democrats than Republicans?

On Sunday, Patrick Ruffini, paid by Hizzoner, made the argument that the Democratic primary may get 2/3rds of the media coverage. This would make it harder for 2nd-tier candidates to "pop" into the first tier. This would favor the people that the press take seriously, which, right now, seems to be John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, and Sam Brownback.

Then I saw this on NYT’s The Caucus. Adam Nagourney, about whom John McCain said, "They’re a Communist paper, but he’s O.K.", was at both the Obama and Romney announcements. First the Obama event:

Mr. Obama’s aides said that he had credentialed more than 600 media for his announcement in Springfield., Ill., on Saturday, and while campaigns are given to exaggeration, that sure seemed right: They were everywhere, filling platforms and hotel rooms. There were crews from Japan and England (foreign news crews are the first and surest sign of a very heavily covered event) as well as some of the bigger feet in the American political media: Joe Klein, Chris Matthews and our own Maureen Dowd among them. They had to rent a full-blown American Airlines jet to cart the candidate and his reporters around.

About Romney:

Guess who was not here this morning as Mr. Romney made his announcement? There were probably 200 members of the media; no Japanese crews in sight. Mr. Klein, Mr. Matthews and Ms. Dowd could not be spotted. And the transportation? We are writing this from a Dornier 328 commuter jet, which has been commandeered to carry Mr. Romney’s press contingent to Des Moines. And yes, there are empty seats.

The press is a lot less interested in Romney. Now how much of that is because Romney is Republican or because the press doesn’t like Romney. I would suggest that this is less an indicator of how much interest there is in the GOP nomination and more that the press really doesn’t like Mitt Romney himself.  Hotline savages his announcement with "annotations" about what Romney "really meant".

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Romney slammed by Boston Fox, MA and MI legislators.

The Boston media is not taking kindly to Mitt Romney’s announce in Michigan today. A number of Massachusetts Republican leaders are signing up to McCain. But perhaps the most vicious is his treatment by his local Fox affiliate:

Word on the street is that a number of Massachusetts Republicans are going to step up and start explaining why they can’t support Mitt Romney. Based on his record, not his words. (Did you note the "talk is cheap" line in his speech….)

Oh yeah. And then the MI legislators who are abandoning him. (for more details, see NRO’s article)

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Romney retracts attack on conservative activist (update)

Update: The Romney campaign has put the article back up! They call it "a glitch". However, they have removed the article from the list of press releases or a list of "All News". I agree with Race42008, which called this, "Team Romney first big goof" and Rob Bluey says it may be a "flip-flopping on a flip-flop".

Last week, Mitt Romney attacked a "gadfly" conservative activist with a press release that Human Event’s Rob Bluey described as "Unpresidential". Now, silently, the press release has been pulled.

The full text of the press release is available at HotlineBlog. (Old link was here)

Romney’s attack had been criticized in a number of places (I did it here).

Not only do they make a dumb attack against a gadfly. They make a clumsy retraction after blogs beat them up. And the URL takes people to an error page. These are the new media guys?

And what does Mitt think? Or is the press release in the past? Mitt’s position has evolved in the last 3 days?

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Was Romney’s Camenker attack a Forti mistake? (update)

Update: Whoever’s mistake it was, it has been pulled.

Mitt Romney’s attack on Brian Camenker has been criticized in a number of places (I did it here). However, National Journal’s Danny Glover has what might be the beginning of the explanation: Carl Forti doesn’t get the new media:

Yes, that’s right, the same Mitt Romney who earned endless kudos this week for being so smart about new media has hired as deputy campaign manager and political director the same man (Forti) who has been dismissive of blogs. While working as communications director at the National Republican Congressional Committee, Forti pretty much ignored blogs and made it clear why: "A lot of times, you just don’t know how reliable the information on these things is. … Ninety percent of the time, we know more than they do."

Forti’s problem is that they have to find a way to respond. But do you respond to a whisper and blog campaign with a press release? Whatever you do attracts attention to it, validating it. For the campaign to go to these lengths, it appears that  "The Mitt Romney Deception" must really be making a difference.

In addition, however, Forti acted on a bad habit of his. He didn’t attack the substance of the attacks on Romney. Instead, he attacked the messenger. He did the same thing last year when Charlie Cook and Stu Rothenberg made ultimately correct predictions of the 2006 elections. Rothenberg details just how wrong and petty Forti’s response was:

Forti knows that control of the House is in jeopardy just as well as I do. He has the polling right in front of him. If I’m wrong in my general portrayal of the cycle or in my handicapping of individual contests, I’d certainly like to know about it. … and bashing the messenger is a petty way to deny the facts.

Glover continues his analysis with:

But if not, there may be some serious clashes between Romney’s online team and Forti, who, according to Hotline, will oversee the campaign’s politics and field desks.

Several people have pointed out to me that this mistake would combine two of Forti’s weaknesses. Matt Lewis describes plenty of ways that this could have been done much more gracefully .. by someone else:

If Camenker is so irrelevant, then why is Romney trying to take him down? Why not let someone else take down Camenker (heck, the AP is already doing the dirty work by calling him a gadfly)? Get a surrogate, for crying out loud, Gov. Romney, but don’t dirty your hands on this man …

A number of strongly Romney-friendly blogs could have done this. Or a conservative activist could have gone on Fox to disagree. But no. They use a press release.

I have heard that there are already some recriminations over this. And justifiably. Matt Lewis was told by someone from an opposing camp:

As a source close to one of Romney’s potential rivals told me, "This is the dumbest stunt by a tier one presidential candidate since George Romney claimed he had been brainwashed by the generals and diplomats."

As a side note, this comparison is vicious. There’s plenty of evidence that Romney’s unwillingness to deal with the press is grounded in his father’s implosion. Romney understands deeply what Conrad Burns said about himself:

"I can self-destruct in one sentence," he told supporters. "Sometimes in one word."

This really is poking Romney where it almost certainly hurts.

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