Fred’s volunteer conference call

September 6, 2007 – 9:09 pm

I stopped in at a Fred Thompson House Party organized by my friends at Virginians for Fred Thompson. Other than a party, which I’m always up for, there was a conference call. I took some notes.

Randy, the political director talked about the "momentum to get to February 5th." That struck me as an odd date. Why then? I assume that this means that they think the contest will be determined on the 5th. With this complicated a field, I am not convinced.

Then Fred got on the phone. He started with "It became more and more evident that people are opening a door for us." I was struck by that language. That sounds more passive than it should be. Clearly he has a lot of support. But … I wouldn’t say it that way.

Then he cut into an interesting riff.  He explained, again, that he is going to talk about big, serious issues:

  • "Ready to talk about serious things in a forthright manner."
  • "Politicians are spending the birthright of people who are unborn and can’t protect themselves." (I thought that was interesting language)
  • "Unprecedented deficits and extremely high taxes" if we continue on the current path"
  • "Not pit one generation against another."

These are really important issues. Are they ballot questions?

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Live blogging debate

September 5, 2007 – 9:16 pm

They open with a question about Fred Thompson.

Mike Huckabee makes a reference to "no show George".

John McCain mentions that the debate might be up past Thompson’s bed time. He also also says that people in New Hampshire want face time.

Rudy Giuliani: "He’s done a pretty good a job playing my part on Law and Order." This is a nomination that you have to earn though. "Three leading Democratic candidates who have not run a state, a city, or a business."

Illegal immigration.

Mitt Romney is asked why he didn’t do anything about sanctuary cities and the illegals on his front lawn. Romney says that governors are not responsible for mayors who are breaking the law. Then he pushes back on Rudy and NYC. Also tries to differentiate with Rudy on "amnesty."

They ask Rudy about a quote about NYC "wanting people like" illegal immigrants who work. Rudy points out that the other part of the executive order required that the police do things about law breaking illegal immigrants . "I didn’t have the luxury of rhetoric." Rudy pointed out that that year 758 people were deported that year.

Wallace asks if McCain if Romney is playing politics with immigration. "We failed because the American people have lost confidence in us. Iraq, … Katrina, etc." "Governor Romney, less than a year ago, had exactly the same position I do now."

Huckabee. They ask him about last year’s racism quote. "First of all, because I have listened to some of them." "I agree, we ought to have sealed borders."  Wow. He again steals Newt’s package tracking analogy.

Hunter. Commits to finishing the fence in 6 months.

After interviewing a cop — curiously from Massachusetts –, the proverbial man on the street, they wing back and ask Rudy and McCain why the bill wasn’t amnesty. Rudy dodges the question. McCain takes it full on.

They lot Romney in. He talks about sanctuary cities and businesses.

Family Values

They ask Sam Brownback about Larry Craig. He pushes back and says that it is important "that the party stand for family values." Brownback did his thing.

Hunter. "When Democrats have problems like this, they make them chairmen of a committee."

They ask Romney about his two-step approach to abortion. "Almost all of us would like to see an America that didn’t have abortion." He reverts to a Bush-style "the states aren’t ready." Wasn’t the question whether Romney thought abortion was murder? "For some people abortion is murder?" What about you Gov. Romney??

Huckabee. Talks about the Human Life Amendment. If he is in the top-tier, he and McCain alone support that. I still think that is extraordinary.

Guns

They ask Rudy about gun control. Rudy talks about reducing crime.

They cut to the diner and a woman says that there shouldn’t be an amendment on gay marriage. The debate audience seems clearly divided.

Brownback says we need an amendment. Then he gives the standard Stanley Kurtz line.

They ask McCain about his recent line about Giuliani.

He gives Rudy a very positive compliment, and then contrasts national security and managing a city and the security there. Then he talks about his position on Iraq and why he was right. McCain contrasts his record on national security. He talks about his military record. "I didn’t manage it. I lead it."

Rudy responds and re-iterates his admiration for McCain. Then he invokes his record as governing. He quotes George Will about his record as "running the most successful conservative government in the last 50 years."

They ask Romney about his Iraq position. "Even Hillary Clinton is willing to commit troops" longer than Romney. Romney doesn’t really say anything but the positive side. He reiterates his position, but doesn’t back away. Romney says "if the surge is working."

They ask McCain to follow up. McCain points out that "the surge is working," and "it’s working governor, it’s working." Ed Morrissey caught the contrast. And Andy McCarthy likes it too.

Then they ask Ron Paul…. Yawn. Fox pushes back and says "so we should take orders from al Qaeda."

Brownback continues his distance. He takes the position that the political solution isn’t happening. Then he re-iterates his federation/Biden strategy. Fortunately, Fox pushes back about the divisive problems: Turkey v. Kurds and Iran’s role. Brownback points out that we have these problems. After all hasn’t Turkey invaded?

They ask Huckabee. He says we have to continue to the surge under the "fix what you break". Huckabee did well on this.

Fox starts a fight between Paul and Huckabee. Huckabee is totally winning from this. This is amazing.

Duncan Hunter continues his audition for SecDef.

Now they ask Tancredo. They point out that he opposed the surge.

Fox cuts to the diner again. And the people in the diner hammer Romney. Romney apologizes and says that we need a global strategy. Romney clarifies his position and no one applauds.

Now they cut to wiretapping, etc.

Romney says that he would wiretap in the US only with a visa. "Our focus has to be preventing an attack."

Now they ask Tancredo about waterboarding.  Like Romney, he ducks the premise of the question and  talks about the responsibility to keep people safe.

Now they ask McCain about torture, et al. McCain invokes a former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Vessey, on this subject to give his answer.

Now they ask Giuliani about Gitmo. "We can’t close Guantanamo because no one will take the people there." Huh? McCain’s position is to deal with them in the legal system. Giuliani has a great line on Iraq. "How do you win if the debate is about how to retreat?" Great and important point.

They ask Hunter if we hold people indefinitely. They say "absolutely."

Taxes

They ask about the tax pledge. McCain says that he stands on his record. Is that the right answer? He then starts talking about corruption and pork, where he is on better ground. Chris Wallace comes back with the logical problem about the votes.

They follow up with Brownback who gives a pedestrian answer.

Rudy gives a weird answer about multiple pledges.  "Only one pledge to the Constitution of the United States." Weird.

Now they beat up on Romney. They talk about Romney raising fees, etc. They give the particular fees. Nice! I am sympathetic to Romney’s position that the tax on interest, dividends, and capital gains should be zero. But isn’t he going to be vulnerable to attacks based on his wealth on this?

Now Fox asks Huckabee about the FairTax and the fact that the numbers don’t work. The closing line about winners and losers and "most of us end up being losers in the end" is great.

The guy at the diner asks about Rudy and family values. "Lead by example." OUCH!

How does he answer this? This is not a fair question. But I think that he screwed it up.

Iran hypothetical

Tancredo makes a very important point about there being a great deal of dissent inside Iran. This is the right answer. Their crazy president is getting boxed in with appointments by people opposed to him.

Duncan Hunter, again speaking to his strength, handles this well. There really isn’t another answer that will fit in.

Huckabee ducks the hypothetical and gives principles. This is the right answer.

Romney gave a nothing answer.

McCain just lays out principles. Not much different than Hunter, Huckabee, or Brownback, except that he doesn’t condemn the hypothetical. Like Brownback he reiterates how severe this threat is.

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Huckabee blogger conference call

August 31, 2007 – 2:34 pm

Mike Huckabee is holding another blogger conference call. This is my first. These are notes. I will have a seperate analysis post.

First, notes from his opening statement:

The last two weeks have been intense. "The straw poll has been phenomenal for us." "On a non-stop tour in terms of the scheduling and the media." Clearly been traveling a lot.

He called the Machinist union endorsement "phenomenal." Apparently, this is the first time in 100-and-some years that they’ve endorsed a Republican.

"Fundraising is going exceptionally well." Best-ever online contributions. People are volunteering to host fundraisers. "Website traffic has increased by 3-4 times. 150 bloggers for Huckabee."

The other story is the poll number pop. "Ahead of Fred Thompson and significantly ahead of John McCain in Iowa." "What we had hoped had happened did happen."

Then questions.

"Steven Nielsen." Colorado for Huckabee. "What is the plan now with Fred Thompson coming in on September 6th?" Huckabee responds,

"I am not sure how much momentum he is going to have. … Extraordinary expectations that will leave people underwhelmed. … I also believe that it will change the dynamics for him … The fact that he chose not to participate in the NH debate is somewhat telling. … I know the people in NH are not real happy about it. … Goals: doing well in the primary states and fundraising. … We still believe that we have to come out of Iowa and South Carolina."

Kevin Tracy.  Asks what Huckabee would do about sex slavery. Response: "Maximum protection to American citizens."

Holly. On the Right Side. York County, South Carolina. She asks about "inferior products made in China" and "balancing out the trade."

"One of the reasons that I got the endorsement of the machinist union. … Further complicated by the buying up of currency. … Free trade is a great thing … but if it is not fair trade, it is not free trade. … Violations of human rights and disregard of the environment. … We do expect them to treat workers with respect. … A regulatory system that is more effect and more like ours. …Protect this country."

John Rogers, With Huckabee. A former Pastor. Asked about the Iowa DOMA law struck down by a judge.

"If you elect liberals to the legislature … this is what you get. … This will light the hearts and minds and feet on this issue. … If you elect people who are a little squishy, this is what you get. … Iowa may need to do what Arkansas did, put it in the Constitution. … I am glad that we did that in Arkansas."

Tom Forbes. Polisticks? "How do you propose to bring as President personal responsibility back into healthcare?"

"Changing the rules… We don’t get benefits for being healthy, we get benefits for being sick. … Giving people a $500 discount for doing a health risk assessment. … Free quit smoking classes… Free weight-loss classes. … Studies show that health costs are 60% or more, even 80%, lower after they reduce their obesity…  Turn this thing toward preventive health…"

Joshua. "What will we do as president to curb government spending?"

"Turn the lights on on government spending. … Make every transaction made by the federal government posted on the internet. … Expenditures are out of control because they have been hidden. … Exercise the veto pen… Also work toward a balanced budget amendment. …"

I asked about his economic populism and why economic conservatives should support him. The response:

"I am supported by the true economic conservatives. … I believe that risk ought to be rewarded. .. The attacks come from special interest groups who have an interest in protecting a certain segment. … One of the reasons that I support the Fair Tax is that it doesn’t pick winners and losers. … When we have reforms on tax policy, it ought not be good for a few CEOs and hedge fund managers .. but for everybody. … Hedge fund managers make 2200 times what the average worker makes. … Hundreds of millions of dollars in instant profit… As a Christian, not just an economic issue, but a moral issue. When you have real success, you share it with the people who helped you.  … That’s the difference between capitalism and greed. … A President has to show the moral leadership of the country, not just policy leadership. … Get rid of most if not all of Sarbanes-Oxley. … The basic way that the rules have been written to favor a few. …  You have a tax policy that encourages boards a huge tax incentive to give a huge salary to the CEO."

Matt Schultz. God, Politics, Lesson. Article and endorsement from New Man Magazine. "Most important endorsement." Magazine of Promise Keepers.

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Ames: Brownback

August 11, 2007 – 4:39 pm

C-SPAN’s coverage makes it clear that he brought lots and lots of kids to the straw poll.

Sam Brownback starts with tying together families with terrorism. Huckabee did that in his own way.

He really talks about abortion differently than the others.

He talked about "reviving the economy." Republicans don’t talk that way. Then he goes on to talk about growth.

He also talked about a political solution in Iraq much more than the other candidates. I am not sure that legislation makes sense as a mechanism, but he talked about it and sounded lukewarm.

His Mother Teresa story could do quite well with uncommitted evangelicals.

I am struck more than anything else by the size of the crowd that he brought.

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Ames: Huckabee

August 11, 2007 – 3:31 pm

Mike Huckabee gets a nice intro from Laura Ingraham.

Give America back to the people on Main Street. This is an important undercurrent to the language Sams Club Republican thing. Is that really what Huckabee is?

Michael Vick joke was cute

"I’m not the best funded candidate. I don’t have the money. I can’t even rent you."

"Not about electing a straw man." Another David Brooks reference?

Talks about the Fair Tax. Probably a good strategy, given his tax problem.

Huckabee repeats Newt’s FedEx/UPS line. It is a good metaphor, even if it is not quite right.

He calls for ending the dependence on foreign oil even faster. Good politics in Iowa.

Huckabee gets his strongest applause, from what I can see, over his life comments.

His line about sacrificing ourselves for our next generation is fantastic. Absolutely fantastic.

The story about his daughter Sarah (a member of the DC Young Republicans when I was chairman) and their trip to the Holocaust museum in Jerusalem is also fantastic. Also interesting to hear the connection between the story of Israel, the Holocaust, and a conservative Christian candidate.

I tend to be impressed by him, and there were some evocative moments. But….

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Live blogging the straw poll: Newt and Romney

August 11, 2007 – 2:16 pm

For some good straw poll blogging, I recommend Marc Ambinder, The Fix, and Cyclone Conservative.

Well, first Newt started by pandering to the anti-immigration forces. Wasn’t he an open borders guy back in the day? Wasn’t he a hero of guest worker programs?

Mitt Romney started by confusing green beans and soybeans. Romney understands that we need change in Washington. He says that change is Washington is going to start "with the results today." Romney starts talking about "strength", a word that David Brooks notes is a bit of a strange fit.

Romney plays up Gitmo. The idea of children cheering for Gitmo turns my stomach.

Romney just said that he wants to cut dividend and capital gains taxes. Actually "zero" for the middle class.

Romney hits on immigration. "Stop illegal immigration." "Amnesty will not work."

Romney also talks about abortion. He says he is firmly pro-life. (whatever)

He talks about marriage. He says he "wants our kids to understand that before they have babies, they get married."

He just called for a button on every computer to cut off porn. DIdn’t Clinton propose that? The V-Chip or something.

Then Romney kicks into his good flag story. And then he ends with his family. I really detest this exhibitionism. But I am amused by the music, "a little less talk and a lot more action."

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McCain blogger conference call

August 2, 2007 – 2:45 pm

McCain calls the ethics bill a "sham and a joke".  "It is just the same as it was before." "There are some good things it" but "it was an opportunity because of the dissatisfaction of the American people… and I’m sorry that we have failed. … it will further contribute to the cynicism of the American people."

Iraq. Lots of words about the need to address defense authorization and Iraq. McCain says again that he will not pull out of Iraq.

Ryan Sager, NYSun. Asks about media consolidation and the Rupert Murdoch. McCain responds that this phone call (blogger only) is evidence that the media is not consolidating.

Jennifer Rubin, Human Events. What about Senator Stevens on the Appropriations Committee? McCain responded that Stevens should have the opportunity to defend himself.What does he think about the Judge Southwick situation? He thinks that his record is fine. The guy has served in Iraq, etc. McCain also says that he is even more proud of the Gang of 14. McCain says that the Gang of 14 deal no longer functions because Republicans aren’t in the majority. Says Southwick deserves an up or down vote.

Philip Klein, American Spectator. Al Qaeda in Pakistan. What is McCain’s response to Obama’s statements about Pakistan. There are a lot of ways of achieving military/political goals without bombing a sovereign country. That’s why we have the CIA, etc. "It would be catastrophic if we somehow destabilized Musharraf by encouraging radical extremists."

James Joyner, Outside the Beltway. Ethics Reform Bill. "Why didn’t we do something [about ethics] when we had the majority?" Are you seeing signs of progress, especially vis-a-vis Maliki? McCain says ethics is why we lost in 2006.  Saudis getting more concerned and involved. The real problem is that they are not sure that we are going to stay in the neighborhood. … "Some of the stirrings and more cooperation have been achieved because of some of the success that we have had militarily on the ground."   McCain thinks Patraeus will come back with a "small progress" report. "Placing political parties and political ambitions ahead of national interest," referring to Clyburn’s recent comment.

Betsy Newmark. Betsy’s Page. Increasing price of food products, what of subsidies for ethanol. Ethanol makes sense at this point economically, and pork and chickens are being effected. She follows up with a question on protectionism and China. McCain says that he is opposed to protectionism. Calls protectionism "one of the great dangers."

Paul Mirengoff of Powerline. (His daughter is a Romney staffer) How can McCain galvanize moderates? "Honesty and integrity," "views are honestly held and well-informed." Immigration was as damaging to him as any issue that he has ever encountered. Takes credit for failure to convince the American people that we are serious about securing the borders.

Patrick Curley, Brainster Blog. McCain voted against cloture and the bill. "This is a sham, this is a joke." Curley follows up with a question about whether it is really possible. McCain responds that transparency is the only option. Earmarks should be subject to a 51-vote challenge on the floor of the Senate.

Doug Lambert, GraniteGrok. DoD changed the status of two soldiers from unknown to "missing/captured." (formerly POW/MIA) Should our soldiers be classified as POW/MIA? McCain responds that POW status is important because it bounds the DoD to treat the family in certain ways. McCain is "strongly in favor of the presumption of POW status."

I asked about Obama’s statement about nukes and Romney’s about withdrawal. Obama, never preclude the use of nuclear weapons under any circumstances. If you believe that, save the taxpayers a bunch of money and get rid of all of our nuclear weapons. "Regard the use of nuclear weapons as the last resort." "What Patraeus would say is not that we can begin the withdrawal. He is going to say that we are seeing progress. That the Iraqi military will be able to take over gradually."

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McCain blogger conference call

July 24, 2007 – 10:00 am

I missed the opening comments.

Rob Bluey asks about last night’s Democratic debate. Barack Obama said he would meet with leaders of bad countries. McCain called that perspective "naive". When we sit down with the Iranians, what’s the first topic? Israel? Nuclear weapons? Or IEDs that they export to Iraq?

Jennifer Rubin asked about the other GOP candidates "softening" on Iraq. He mentioned Romney’s "secret plan" for withdrawal.
Phil Klein asked Newt’s statement that McCain is on the verge of dropping out. McCain responds with "perhaps he has some clairvoyance that I am not aware of." "We are going to be fine. I am going to win this nomination." Phil asks a follow up about matching funds, and McCain responds that the question about taking matching funds has everything to do with winning strategy.

Ed Morrissey asks about AMT. McCain explains why the AMT is important. Would do it very quickly.

Skip Murphy asks about corporate taxes. McCain said he would not support the current Democratic proposals. McCain points out that a corporate tax increase would result in companies leaving the US. He would like there to be a BRAC-like commission to reduce

Jim Geraghty mentioned Barack Obama’s position on Iraq. Obama said that genocide would occur after we leave Iraq. McCain says that the Democratic position makes no sense. "It is curious logic to say that we must stop genocide in one part of the world, but it is ok in another part of the world." "It seems to me not a very sophisticated approach."

Betsy Newman asked about Kelo and property. McCain said that he would give a speech on Kelo and property rights.

Christopher Potter Stewart asks about energy policy. McCain responds that "climate change is a huge issue." "I think that we are coming around … the Republican Party is coming around on this issue." "Doesn’t get a lot of coverage. The nature of media is that it is all about Iraq…"

Pat Hynes says two more calls. Senator McCain corrects him to 5.

Ryan Sager asks about the early state strategy. McCain responds that Michigan and other states may matter quite a bit.  "The person who wins 2 out of 3 of the early states is inevitably the nominee."

Ed Morrissey asks about a Fair Tax. McCain responds about the system in general. "Fair or flat or whatever. It’s an abomination." McCain mentions the 22% Estonian Flat Tax. 99% income tax compliance.

Paul someone asks about wasted productivity and Sarbanes-Oxley and Senator DeMints proposal. McCain says that it is a good proposal. He also says that the problem is "a little harder than DeMint’s proposal." "Clearly Sarbox has had tremendous negative impact on Small and Medium sized enterprises."

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McCain blogger conference call

July 13, 2007 – 2:32 pm

Getting in at the tail end of McCain’s opening. He sounds very, very tired.

Jennifer Rubin asks about Sens. Lugar and Warner re-authorizing the war under different conditions. McCain says that once you authorize a war, you either win the war or lose it. Says we can still win.

James Joyner asks why McCain has any optimism at all about Iraq. McCain is very disappointed, but says that they still have an opportunity to move forward. Joyner follows up and McCain says that there are no good options. However, he agrees that the political situation is very bad.

AmSpec’s Phil Klein asks about debt. McCain says that there will be debt but that the doesn’t have the numbers.

Michael Goldfarb comes on. McCain says it is always darkest before the black. Goldfarb asks about the Senate bill and the legislation. McCain says that the real test is next week with the Levin and Reid amendments.

Jim Addison asks about Sen. Domenici’s shift in position on Iraq. McCain says he wants more people like Domenici to go over to Iraq. He thinks that Domenici would have a different perspective if he would go to Iraq. "Guardedly optimistic that we can maintain 41 votes."

Hinderocker asks about the September cut-off. McCain says that timeframes are bad. For example, the bad guys could start dropping bombs at the beginning of September.

Jeff Emanuel, who is going to Iraq next week, from Redstate asks if McCain would take time off from his campaign. McCain asks for an update from the trip.  And he says that the war is his highest priority.

Jim Geraghty. Asks if there are any issues on which McCain would be to the right of this administration. Spending, spending, spending. Dispirited the base with spending and corruption.

Ana Marie Cox asks about Iraq. What happens if the other three candidates back off Iraq? McCain says that immigration and the war have damaged his campaign. And McCain says that Iraq is his highest priority.

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Fred Thompson interview from Young Republican Convention

July 7, 2007 – 2:48 pm

Update: My deepest apologies. I have had sporadic internet access and convention responsibilities. Here is the interview.

Liz Mair and I interviewed Fred Thompson after his speech. The speech is coming up.

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