Immigration and the GOP

My friend Robert Bluey really laid into Michael Gerson’s piece in the Post today. But I think that Rob missed the point. For him, the focus of the piece was this paragraph:

It is a strange spectacle. Conservatives are intent on building a more appealing, post-Bush Republican Party. But their most obvious change so far is to reverse remarkable Republican gains among one of the fastest-growing groups of American voters. The renovators seem more like the wrecking crew.

Rob’s consistent critique of immigration reform has been that it is driven more by politics than by values and policies. From this view, the debate over immigration reform seems clear cut. However, that’s clearly not where Gerson is coming from. I took the key paragraph to be:

One gets the impression of decent men, intimidated by the vocal anger of elements of their own party.

As I have argued before, all the first tier Republican candidates have been what is called by restrictionists "open borders" people. Sam Brownback and John McCain have actually maintained their positions, while Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani have complicated their positions but not caved too much.

What about Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson who have simply sold their principles down the river on this issue?

One gets the impression of decent men, intimidated by the vocal anger of elements of their own party.

So why have McCain, Brownback, and, to a degree, Huckabee, maintained their positions?  My gut is that it is because their positions are deeply grounded in their values and, in particular, their religious values. Gerson actually praised McCain’s religious argument for immigration reform:

For McCain, they were not "illegals," they were human beings, with names. "We can’t let immigrants break our laws with impunity," he said. "But these people are also God’s children who wanted simply to be Americans."

This is not moral exhibitionism; it is just morality. And my respect for McCain, it turns out, is less and less grudging.

It should not be surprising that the two serious candidates of religious voters, Huckabee and Brownback, are members of the two major denominations that have taken a position in support of immigration reform. Their values are deeply grounded.

Some people, myself included, view immigration reform as a moral issue. And a simple one. And a deep one.

Now, Rob doesn’t understand this. For Rob, Gerson’s argument is about politics.  It is about Hispanic votes for the GOP. But for Gerson, McCain, and President Bush, that is a secondary argument. As Gerson said, "it is just morality."

Gerson’s point is, in part, also about integrity. People who are not haters have adopted the language and stance of hatred for votes. That is immoral. Tom Tancredo’s position on immigration is at least sincere. It is a serious position, even if it is irresponsible and wrong. However, the position of Thompson and Romney are different. They are weak. They are insincere for transactional reasons. They are simply acting out of politics. They are, as Gerson points out:

One gets the impression of decent men, intimidated by the vocal anger of elements of their own party.

The Republican Party deserves better than this from its leaders. They are to be leaders. They are to be men of principles. Riding the mob to victory is no way to lead or rule. But some parts of the conservative movement don’t understand that.

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Romney’s Drudge ads on immigration

Romney is buying immigration ads on Drudge tonight. Here are two of the pictures:

Note that he compares New York City to San Francisco.

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Evangelical, Republican Hispanics angry over immigration

Recall that Catholic Hispanics are more likely to be Democrats while Evangelical Hispanics, especially Pentecostals, are more likely to be Republican. Of course, if they think that the Republican Party is a bunch of racists, the ball moves, or so says the head of a national Hispanic evangelical organization:

Mr. Rodriguez presides over the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference, which is the sister of the prominent National Association of Evangelicals. He is plugged in enough to participate in weekly White House conference calls. …

The defeat [of the comprehensive immigration reform bill] has Mr. Rodriguez wondering whether "the GOP is the party of Jeff Sessions, Tom Tancredo and James Sensenbrenner or the party of George W. Bush and John McCain?" In other words, those like Mr. Tancredo who strongly opposed immigration reform or those like Mr. Bush who strongly favored it.

Right now, Mr. Rodriguez thinks, "xenophobia has triumphed over an appreciation for diversity. They completely abandoned us."

Hint to the GOP. Moderate evangelicals are swing voters, as are evangelical Hispanics. They gave Bush 1.8m votes. Those are not margins we can throw away.



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Huckabee to end birthright citizenship

Last week, I said that Mike Huckabee is in a position to run an isolationist, nativist, populist race for President.  I pointed out that, at least on the issue of immigration, one of the things that could get in the way of his doing that was his religious beliefs, which we consistent with his view on immigration.

Last year, in a lunch with reporters, he said that not only was he an open to comprehensive immigration reform, but that he thought opposition to it was based in racism and xenophobia, among other factors:

[Huckabee] said he believes opposition to comprehensive immigration reform is ‘irrational in many cases.’ And he did not discount the causative factor of racism. "If I were to say that some of it is driven by just sheer racism, I think I would be telling you the truth. I’ve had conversations with people that and it became very evident that what they really didn’t like was that people didn’t look like them, didn’t talk like them, didn’t celebrate ht [sic] holidays like they do, and they just had a problem with it.

But now it seems that Governor Reverend Huckabee wants the votes of racists and nativists. The Washington Times reports that he is now supportive of ending birthright citizenship.

" ‘I would support changing that. I think there is reason to revisit that, just because a person, through sheer chance of geography, happened to be physically here at the point of birth, doesn’t necessarily constitute citizenship,’ he said. ‘I think that’s a very reasonable thing to do, to revisit that.’ "

There is a powerful coalition of Huckabee, Ron Paul, Tom Tancredo, and Duncan Hunter supporters out there…

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Barnes: GOP immigration rhetoric is a mistake

The Weekly Standard’s Fred Barnes compares the Democrat’s losing (the war and the voters) position to Iraq to immigration:

Yet Republicans are doing the same thing on another issue, trading away long-term gain for the immediate joy of pleasing voters who may (or may not) decide the winner of the Republican presidential nomination in 2008. That issue is immigration.

By dwelling, often emotionally, on the problem of illegal immigration as a paramount issue and as if nothing is being done to deal with it, Republicans are alienating Hispanic Americans, the fastest growing voting bloc in the country. What’s worse is many Republicans are oblivious to this or insist that losing Hispanic voters doesn’t really matter because they’ll never be reliable Republican voters anyway. These Republicans buy the notion that a sizable majority of Hispanics are and always will be Democrats.

Several points are worth making. First, he is talking about tone here. Jim Geraghty made the point about Tom Tancredo’s performance at Ames:

Tom Tancredo has also made stopping illegal immigration his signature issue — but he’s a bit more likely to shoot his mouth off, and cause racially-tinged controversies in the process. He has introduced legislation to impose an indefinite moratorium on legal immigration to the United States.  …

Two candidates, both tough on border security, but with two very different styles and approaches. I would call one [, Duncan Hunter,] serious, one reckless. And we see where seriousness gets you.

Second, Barnes point out that the language is very simple to hear as racism, especially by legal Hispanic immigrants:

A key question is why would Hispanics who are American citizens respond unfavorably to attacks on illegal immigrants? After all, they’re here legally and polls show they oppose illegal entry.

The reason is simple: they see the issue as focusing entirely on Mexican and Central American immigrants. Illegals from other parts of the world who overstay their visas are largely ignored by Republican critics.

Now, there is one thing that disappoints me. Barnes doesn’t make a positive argument for immigration reform. And here, I think Barnes misses an opportunity. Much has been made of the Christian arguments for immigration by Gerson, the Southern Baptist Church and Richard Land, or the Catholics. The business community has made its argument clear. But the talk about immigration also creates another sharp disconnect in our tone.

Our talk on immigration is not the talk of a people with hope. It is the language of people under siege. This is not good for our party. It strikes me that conservative values and policies are most successful when framed in a positive light. For example, tax cuts and deregulation bring opportunity for everyone. Winning the Cold War for our values. Etc.

A politics that is driven by anger and fear has never been a transformative or a majority politics in America. This path is the path of the angry white male minority party afraid of losing its place. And the angry white male is losing its place. The only way to stop that is a positive vision. A real shift is taking place, and hopefully our party will react appropriately. Maybe this is just a typical response to shock. The process starts with denial — like NRO’s piece, typically shouting "stop". Then anger. Then, finally, acceptance.

But, electorally, it makes sense to move through the cycle quickly.

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Romney says Rudy Mitt-flopped on immigration

I just don’t believe this. Here’s what Mitt Romney has to say about Rudy Giuliani on immigration:

Mayor Giuliani hopefully will explain why there’s such a dramatic departure from his position as mayor, where he said he welcomed illegal aliens to New York, and that they would be in a zone of protection in New York City,” Romney told the Herald-Journal today. “His sanctuary city policy is one of the very problems that’s led to 12 million or more illegal aliens coming into this country.”

Now, it is true that Rudy is flip-flopping on Immigration. No disagreement with that.

But can Mitt Romney really be the guy to say that? The guy who has flip-flopped on abortion, gay-rights, taxes, guns, embryonic stem-cell research, Ronald Reagan, the Contract with America, his draft-dodging, education, immigration, and campaign finance-reform?

It is perfectly clear that in Mitt Romney’s mind, the rules don’t apply to him. Ted Kennedy’s flip-flop on abortion was important, but Romney’s isn’t important. Rudy Giuliani’s flip-flop on immigration: devastating. Romney’s? Won’t even admit to it.

UPDATE: I’ve gotten some pushback, just as my friend Marc Ambinder did, from the Giuliani campaign about this. He has the right response:

One cannot listen to this excerpt of Giuliani, taken from an apperance before the Kennedy School of Government in 1996, and conclude that, in the back of his mind, Giuliani was somehow arguing that if only our law enforcement techniques got better, we’d be able to solve the problem. He was making an affirmative argument that solving the problem itself could be more harmful than preserving the status quo So — clearly — Giuliani’s argument has changed.

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Ask an honest question?

Get an honest answer:

"When we walked through the series of measures that are being proposed, we got 77 percent of Republicans, 72 percent of Democrats, and 70 percent of independents supporting it," says Goeas (pronounced GO-as). "There’s not a piece of research I’ve seen that, if you explain each one of those pieces, you don’t get a majority saying they approve it." Several issues are at play, Goeas says.

Shocking. Confirming all the evidence, Republicans support immigration reform.
So, instead of leading, the naysayers are not bothering to educate their constituents…

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Timeline of an immigration bill

Last week, after the seeming pause in the fight over the immigration bill, a number of people wrote that the delay in the immigration bill was either good or bad for John McCain. Now it seems likely that the immigration bill will pass the Senate, as Rep. Tom Cole indicated at the NRCC/Heritage blogger lunch. This issue will continue to have a profound impact on the GOP primary.

Let’s just be clear about the timeline, assuming that the bill passes:

  • The Senate votes this week or next.
  • The House writes a bill in July and holds floor debate in September, at the earliest. Pelosi has indicated, in CQ, that this may not start until September.
  • The bill goes to conference in September and either comes out in October (unlikely) or in 2008.
  • The final vote, and the President’s signature with a big ceremony, occurs in 2008. Question: will this occur before or after Feb. 5th? Note that Pelosi and Reid will get to make the timing decision.

The upshot is that the GOP candidates are going to get drilled on this through the primary season. It is clear what they would all like. After all, just one year ago, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani, and Mike Huckabee all expressed support for solutions to the Senate bill. Only John McCain and Sam Brownback have had the courage of their convictions. The GOP candidates want to rail against the bill and have it pass.Then they get their private policy preference and an issue.

But this means that the issue of "amnesty" will be live in the primary, but probably be off the table in the general. The general will probably focus on implementing border security.

Of course, the other option is that they go to conference and it never comes out, with Pelosi and Reid hoping for a Democratic President and more Democratic Senate. But Congress already has lower ratings than the GOP Congress, and they cannot afford a "do nothing" label being applied to them. And under the right circumstances, the GOP might just get the House back, and the Dems won’t get the bill they want.

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Gingrich and immigration

First, he puts out an ad. Second, someone drops oppo on him in South Carolina. Basically, he used to be sensible before he started pandering. Does anyone think he is running? Why is this happening?

Ryan Sager points out how misleading the ad is:

It’s worth noting just how misleading this ad is: 15 of the 19 9/11 hijackers were in America legally on visas. Punishing Mexican immigrants for Saudi terrorism is more than a non-sequitur — it’s a transparent fig leaf for pre-existing nativist sentiment.

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WSJ’s Henniger nails it on immigration

This is good stuff from Dan Henniger at the Journal:

Indeed the proprietor of this column was released from the burn ward just days ago after arguing last week in this space that some 12 million illegal workers employed by seven or eight U.S. industries across numerous states was an important market signal and that it was not in the interests of conservatives to dismiss market forces as irrelevant.

Conservatives for market forces? Very strange. It seems that the grassroots consists of Conservatives Against the Market and Christians Against Forgiveness.

He continues:

There are at least 12.5 million illegal Hispanic-origin workers in the U.S. now. If the opponents want at least 6 million of them out of the U.S., they should write up legislation that will achieve that goal, tell the American people that this is indeed the explicit purpose and then let voters convey their desires to the Members of Congress.

If expulsion is not the goal but if "unearned" citizenship remains intolerable (and politically, that may well be so), then the one feasible option is for the political system to create a temporary guest-worker program that rises and falls with the tides of the U.S. economy.

There can’t be too many people in this debate more upset with the status quo than those who emailed me about last week’s column. What galled these readers, often small businesspeople, was the feeling of rank unfairness; they incur costs for liability and workers comp, which they believe the hirers of illegals evade. However angry, most of these Journal readers want to move forward, not back, as summarized here: "By the way, this doesn’t make me anti-immigrant or a racist, either. If labor shortages are that big of an issue then lobby to adjust our legal immigration and work visa policies." Agreed.

Of course, that’s why it is in the bill.

Oh, and Henniger points out Mitt Romney’s shameful flip-flop.

The truth is that if Gov. Romney’s public stance on "temporary Z visas" for illegal workers has migrated from support to opposition, it has little to do with civility and a lot to do with the blowtorch of opposition from Republicans to anything — from A to Z — having to do with illegal workers from Mexico or Latin America.

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