Fred: Post-partisan talk on real issues?

August 16, 2007 – 8:03 am

According to David Broder, Fred Thompson wants a change of pace. He wants to talk about important issues:

[H]e "will take some risks that others are not willing to take, in terms of forcing a dialogue on our entitlement situation, our military situation and what it’s going to cost" to ensure the nation’s future. …

But he says he thinks the public is looking for a different kind of leadership. "I think a president could go to the American people and say, ‘Here’s what we need to be doing. And I’m willing to go halfway. Now you have to make them [the opposition] go halfway.’ "

This sounds like the constant refrain from the John McCain campaign, "John McCain showed that he will take on the hard issues like immigration and national security." And it is consistent with Thompson’s character and his support for McCain in 2000 and 2006-2007. Thompson is said to have left Washington because he felt it was impossible to address real challenges from the Senate.
So far from the Thompson campaign, we have seen red meat, but this piece shows another side:

"Nobody in Congress or on either side in the presidential race wants to deal with it," Thompson said. "So we just rock along and try to maintain the status quo. Republicans say keep the tax cuts; Democrats say keep the entitlements. And we become a less unified country in the process, with a tax code that has become an unholy mess, and all we do is tinker around the edges."

Thompson readily concedes that he does not know "where all those chips are going to fall" when he starts challenging members of various interest groups to look beyond their individual agendas and weigh the sacrifices that could ensure a better future for their children.

Perhaps it is a problem solving, post-partisanship? I am convinced that Thompson is not the person that conservative activists fantasize him to be. This seems like supporting evidence

UPDATE:   Jim Geraghty thinks this is big and sees something similar to what I do. Allahpundit does not.

Tag:

By eye | Comments (1)

The battle being set on the right

August 13, 2007 – 9:44 am

One way of viewing the result of the straw polls is how it re-organizes the field. For a while, at least, Mike Huckabee can claim a pseudo first-tier status, compared in the same breath as the big-4. The Wall Street Journal presented this this way:

Should Mr. Huckabee capitalize on his second-place showing here Saturday to get a second look from demoralized Republicans unhappy with their choices — and to get much-needed funding — the repercussions could reshuffle the party’s contest for its 2008 nomination. Social conservatives, who have come to dominate the Republican party, could decide the candidate they have been looking for has been in the race the whole time, languishing at the back of the pack with little money to promote himself.

That wouldn’t be good news for Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback, who likewise has struggled to be that candidate, or for actor and former senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee. Mr. Thompson’s still-undeclared candidacy has been propelled by the argument that he could fill the perceived void of a true conservative,

This creates a real problem for conservatives. Social conservatives are going to have to pick between three "first tier" social conservative candidates: Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson. The LA Times framed this as a challenge for Romney, although Fredheads and others would object that they are the true front-runners for this mantle:

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has fought for months to unite social conservatives behind his bid for the Republican presidential nomination.

But his weekend victory in an Iowa straw poll only underscored the fierce competition he still faces for conservatives who remain wary of the GOP’s top White House contenders.

"Clearly, no one has consolidated the conservative vote," said Whit Ayres, a Republican strategist unaligned in the presidential race.

Ayres argues that Romney’s front-runner status is a little illusory:

Romney has banked heavily on Iowa. By spending far more on TV ads here than any other Republican, he has driven up his poll numbers. But, said strategist Ayres, "all of that can change when the other candidates go on the air, or when a candidate as potentially popular as Fred Thompson gets in the race."

Ed Morrissey views this as having more potential for hurting Thompson, however you get the sense from reading Ed that he doesn’t take Romney that seriously:

If that momentum comes from anywhere, it may come from Fred. The former Tennessee Senator has been buoyed by conservative dissatisfaction with the current crop of front-runners.

It will be interesting to see if this frame develops

Tags: , , ,

By eye | Comments (0)

Thompson’s fundraising numbers are a self-trap

July 31, 2007 – 3:58 am

Jim Geraghty posts the Thompson defense of their "disappointing" fundraising numbers. I, frankly, don’t know what to make of all of this, but I have two thoughts.

First, people are comparing John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Rudy Giuliani’s fundraising numbers to Fred Thompson’s. Simply, these are apples and oranges. McCain and Romney had been running for President for several years. Romney ran for his RGA position in 2004 and starting building his national fundraising network soon after. And Giuliani had started his political operation at least a year beforehand, collecting business cards and favors as he campaigned for candidates all over the country. Compare that to Thompson. I first heard his name circulated at CPAC, when it seemed laughable. Three months after that, he raises more money in one month than the total amount raised by any one 2nd tier candidate. Starting from scratch.

That said, it illustrates a trap that the Thompson campaign has set for itself. No plausible number was high enough to meet the expectations. And that’s going to be part of the problem for him. He will never be as conservative as the hopes and dreams of his followers. He will never be as articulate as Reagan. He will never (or at least not for a while) have the fundraising apparatus of someone who has been running for President for 3-4 years. Etc. Etc. Etc.

People might cut him some slack if his followers didn’t present him as the savior…

Tags: ,

By eye | Comments (2)

Rudy versus Thompson: Two options for the party

July 25, 2007 – 10:54 am

I have been meaning to write about this for a while, but I hadn’t gotten my act together. Here’s my thesis: Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson represent two different models (perhaps even polarities) for where the party goes from here.

Rudy Giuliani appeals to certain kinds of swing voters, for example many kinds of Reagan Democrats with toughness, soccer/security moms with security and social moderation/tolerance/liberalism, etc. In some ways, in a Republican Party whose base is increasingly focused on security, Rudy Giuliani is a natural candidate of that new part of the coalition. And he is seen as "electable." And, as one Member of Congress who is leaning towards Giuliani put it the other day, "They guy was #3 in the Reagan Justice Department. How much of a squish could be really be?" In some sense, one could argue that Rudy is a transformational candidate for the party.

At the same time, Fred Thompson is increasingly appearing to be the candidate of social conservatives. (if that proposition had been offered in 2000, it would have been laughable) Perhaps more precisely, he is becoming a part of the candidate of the existing coalition, which is "with but not of" the social conservative movement. This is especially important. To see why, let’s talk a little bit more about what a Rudy Giuliani nominee would mean.

The first point to make is that the GOP, out of necessity would need to recruit a whole new set of volunteers. As I pointed out last week, pro-lifers form a significant portion of the GOP activist base. Those people will not volunteer for Rudy. Many of those activists won’t even vote for him. Let’s assume, for a second, that the GOP and the Giuliani campaign would be able to recruit a new activist base. This would shatter the grip that social conservative activists have on the grassroots of the party. As I said, transformative. This would be a repeat of the Goldwater revival of the grassroots or the Reagan/New Right revival of the GOP grassroots. Now, I am not sure that they can do that. The Giuliani campaign has very little ground game.

Second, and continuing to assume his success, the transition could be very, very bloody. We would find the volunteers for the swing states at the Presidential level. But could we produce them for Congressional races in places like KS-2, CA-4, CA-11, TX-22, NC-10, etc. In other words, places that won’t be in play at the Presidential level, but will be at the congressional level. The fact is, the nominee will determine the tone of the campaign. The groups can try to turnout volunteers, but I have trouble seeing literally thousands of home schoolers mobilizing for down-ballot races when Giuliani is at the top of the ticket. So I could easily imagine a scenario in which Giuliani succeeds at the top of the ticket , but we suffer down ballot because we can’t crank out of the phone calls in swing districts. But, over time, Giuliani should be able to attract, as President, a new set of volunteers to revert to a more normal situation. (note that Mitt Romney offers another problem. I predict that with him as the nominee we lose lots of close rust belt congressional seats)

The conclusion that I come to from this is that a Thompson candidacy is getting its support from conservative groups partly to maintain some level of control over the party apparatus. Thompson is not perfect. (who would think that the social conservative groups would rally behind a pro-campaign finance reform, anti-marriage amendment, anti-life amendment candidate?) But he does not flood the party with new activists. And, if you were to believe that the party will not keep the White House in 2008 — a safe bet –, then … he’s a safe bet to keep people in their positions of power.

Now, according to this analysis, I think that John McCain might be a happy medium (war hero, emphasizing security, and the most pro-life 1st tier candidate), but the distrust that the base has for him, especially on things like immigration, may be insurmountable.

Just a thought.

Tags: , ,

By eye | Comments (8)

Romney vs. Thompson polling

July 20, 2007 – 10:37 am

The other day, I mentioned that Fred Thompson’s name ID was lower than Mitt Romney’s. I got some push back. Rasmussen has some numbers that confirm my assertion. This has been the case for a long, long time.

  GOP Overall
  Fav Unfav Image Unknown Fav Unfav
Giuliani 71 23 3.1 6 53 40
Thompson 61 17 3.6 23 44 31
Romney 56 31 1.8 13 37 43
McCain 54 39 1.4 7 44 46


Looking at these numbers, we see several things:

  1. Mitt Romney doesn’t have that much more room to grow. Very soon, more forward progress for him is going to depend on changing people’s minds about him, which is much, much harder than introducing him. And Romney’s continued negative press will make this hard. Now, his numbers will go up some when he advertises, so he has some hope. I want crosstabs to tell me who doesn’t like Romney.
  2. Fred Thompson is still not known by almost 1/4 GOPers. This is both an opportunity and a danger. If more stories like the abortion lobbyist story emerge, he might get introduced like Romney has been. But it seems that he can count on positive press.Romney
  3. Giuliani is cruising.
  4. McCain is struggling. Will probably take a significant change in context for him to come back.

These results, and the idea that Romney and Thompson are fighting for similar voters, suggests that Romney will continue to attack Thompson.

We also see that Thompson’s unfavorable among Democrats and/or independents offers him some hope in a general election.

The conclusions are the same that they’ve been in a while. Romney has been painted by something and someone. His general election candidacy is almost certainly not viable.  And to win the general, he probably has to go through Thompson.

It is just too early to tell for Thompson.

Now there’s another important issue: electoral votes. I am not sure that I see how either one of these guys really add electoral votes.

Tags: , , ,

By eye | Comments (0)

Fred Thompson speaks to College Republicans

July 15, 2007 – 3:03 pm

Fred Thompson popped into the College Republican National Convention for a surprise visit, again appealing to elements of the base with a sort of folksy, grassroots style. Here’s what he said:

Sam Brownback also spoke. Trent Lott was a surrogate for John McCain. And Mitt Romney had a table. The crowd seemed most responsive to Thompson and Lott.

Tag:

By eye | Comments (0)

Thoughts on Young Republican convention

July 9, 2007 – 10:44 am

All the enthusiasm was for Fred Thompson. Probably a quarter of the delegates were walking around with Thompson stickers. The news stories and the videos only partly capture the energy in the room for him. While his speech was a little bit of a let down on content the positioning was fantastic. I was struck by the "you" language that was coming out him. "I’m here to thank you", "I’m here to help you." It was clear that Thompson is trying to channel the party base and the conservative movement. And it is clear that the party base, at least at the Young Republican convention, wanted it.

In general, Thompson’s strategy seems right now to be the empty vessel. To connect with the party faithful . It felt like he was "one of us." He wasn’t pushing issues or policy positions. In the very brief interview with me and Liz Mair, he again spoke in principles, not specifics. But they were principles that we could rally around.

By contrast, I didn’t feel a lot of enthusiasm for Mitt Romney. He had a booth outside the convention room, but there were many more Rudy Giuliani stickers than Mitt Romney stickers. (I should note that Massachusetts had a 2 person delegation and New York had a 4 person delegation. By contrast California had 50+) And I still don’t know who was passing out the Giuliani stickers. I didn’t detect much enthusiasm during the speech from actual Young Republicans, although some of the good lines got standing ovations. (as opposed to the Thompson speech, during which the entire room was on their feet almost the whole time) And there wasn’t nearly the same mob effect.

I was again struck that I like some of what Romney says but I just don’t trust him. He is substantially right about the challenges that the country faces, although I would shade the Asia issue differently. And, as one Muslim delegate noted, Romney’s mischaracterizations of Islam are pretty shocking.

In addition, the shady activities involving the straw poll really angered a lot of people.

Tags: ,

By eye | Comments (3)

Fred’s speech to Young Republicans

July 8, 2007 – 1:47 am

Title says it all:


Tag:

By eye | Comments (2)

Fred Thompson interview from Young Republican Convention

July 7, 2007 – 2:48 pm

Update: My deepest apologies. I have had sporadic internet access and convention responsibilities. Here is the interview.

Liz Mair and I interviewed Fred Thompson after his speech. The speech is coming up.

Tags: ,

By eye | Comments (9)

Christian right dated Mitt, married Fred?

July 5, 2007 – 1:57 pm

Update: Since writing this, Glen Johnson at the AP has written on the whole Romney/porn story. He quoted Tony Perkins, the head of the Family Research Council. At the very least, this puts an exclamation point on my second point below. Clearly the Focus/FRC operation has engaged for Thompson and against Romney. A very, very bad day for Mitt Romney. And a very, very good one for Fred Thompson.

So, I read three things today that made a thunderclap in my head about the support of the Christian right in the 2008 GOP presidential nomination fight.

First, Focus on the Family ran a segment entitled, "Presidential hopeful Mitt Romney, an outspoken critic of pornography, is called to task for his ties to Marriott hotels; a chain that makes money by providing porn to guests." In other words and in reality, James Dobson signed off on an attack on Mitt Romney, something that had not been done earlier. This story had been previously reported by CBN’s David Brody and had been covered by a lot of mainstream press. This is, however, the first time, other than CBN, that it made it into the Christian press. And you can’t beat the Christian radio networks for targeting devoted listeners.

Second, Hugh Hewitt pointed out that the new site Blogs for Fred was founded by Joe Carter, who writes Evangelical Outpost. Joe also works at the Family Research Council where his title is director of Web Communications. Now, I am sure that this is not on behalf of FRC, but….

Third, Dr. Al Mohler, President of Southern Baptist Seminary and an evangelical leader beyond the 30+ million Southern Baptists begins an online debate taking the position that "Mormonism is not Christianity."

My reading? Christian right leaders have found their man in Fred Thompson, after a long, but ultimately unsuccessful courtship with Mitt Romney. This reminds me of the 2003 and 2004 buttons and bumper stickers "Dated Dean, Married Kerry."

If more attacks from the right emerge against Romney, I think that it will be fair to say that this is a push for Thompson.

Tags: , ,

By eye | Comments (7)