WSJ’s knife in the heart of Romney’s base

January 7, 2008 – 2:58 pm

Mitt Romney’s voters are upper-middle class. The kinds of people who read the Wall Street Journal. Today the Journal attempted an assist. On the top of the page was a piece entitled "McCain’s promise" with the pull-quote:

It is cruel to compare the senator to most of his Republican competitors.

The next story on the page was "The New New Mitt" with the pull-quote:

New Hampshire voters know Romney’s record better than most. That could spell trouble.

That’s a clear message from the news source of the management and business class that Mitt Romney is not their guy, and John McCain is.

That’s gotta hurt.

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Tancredo endorsement

December 20, 2007 – 1:54 am

UPDATE: Marc Ambinder hears interesting whispers on this endorsement:

Will he endorse? Unclear. If he does, the betting is on Thompson or Romney, although advisers to both men expect the other to get it, if it’s gettable. Note that Bay Buchanan is a member of the LDS church and is said to be pushing Tancredo to endorse Romney as a way of repudiating Huckabee, somehow. We’ll see.

So the word is that Tom Tancredo is dropping out this afternoon. That’s the good news. There is some speculation that he will endorse, although Marc Ambinder, who is smarter than me, thinks that he will not.

Here are some thoughts:

1. Tanc only has two kinds of juice left.

1a. He can provide a good press day for someone. The question is whether he blows his wad today or after Christmas. If I am getting the endorsement and I don’t need a big kick of momentum, I probably want it after Christmas. On the other hand, a Thursday endorsement may be the last real story going into Christmas. Scheduled at 3pm EST to guarantee that it is talked about on the afternoon talk shows and it is hard to get other stories in. That sounds to me like an endorsement of someone else.

1b. He provides a potentially solid endorsement for the xenophobic crowd. Of course, Tancredo has real baggage (crazy mecca comments, crazy xenophobia, etc.), so mileage may vary.

2. Mitt Romney needs a good press day. I have been hearing that he will get the endorsement. The entire Colorado GOP establishment is backing Romney. Tancredo would actually be helping Romney in Iowa. And if the rumors about Steve King are true, it would seem that Romney would be the natural choice of King’s buddy Tanc. Of course, in the past, Tancredo’s campaign has accused Romney of supporting amnesty. Furthermore, if Tancredo believes that Romney will be the nominee, a very credible position right now, then Tancredo can be there for Romney at the right time.

3. Fred Thompson. If Tancredo wants to help make the Fred Thompson boom happen, here’s his chance. Fred’s numbers aren’t taking off too much. He would need it. Of course, Tancredo would be wondering if it would be wasted.

My gut is Romney. I have a lot of trouble figuring out what Thompson is telling people with interest groups, not bloggers, who are endorsing him.

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DMR and Globe endorse McCain

December 15, 2007 – 11:55 pm

The Des Moines Register and the Boston Globe endorsed John McCain today. The Register’s key quotes:

Yet, for all their accomplishments on smaller stages, none can offer the tested leadership, in matters foreign and domestic, of Sen. John McCain of Arizona. McCain is most ready to lead America in a complex and dangerous world and to rebuild trust at home and abroad by inspiring confidence in his leadership.

 

In an era of instant celebrity, we sometimes forget the real heroes in our midst. The defining chapter of McCain’s life came 40 years ago as a naval aviator, when he was shot down over Vietnam. The crash broke both arms and a leg. When first seeing him, a fellow prisoner recalls thinking he wouldn’t live the night. He was beaten and kept in solitary confinement, held 5 ears. He could have talked. He did not. Son of a prominent Navy admiral, he could have gained early release. He refused. …

 

McCain would enter the White House with deep knowledge of national-security and foreign-policy issues. He knows war, something we believe would make him reluctant to start one. He’s also a fierce defender of civil liberties. As a survivor of torture, he has stood resolutely against it. He pledges to start rebuilding America’s image abroad by closing the Guantanamo prison and beginning judicial proceedings for detainees.

 

McCain has his flaws, too, of course. He can be hot-tempered, a trait that’s not helpful in conducting diplomacy. At 71, his age is a concern. The editorial board disagrees with him on a host of issues, especially his opposition to abortion rights and gay marriage. McCain foresees a “long, hard and difficult” deployment of troops in Iraq. The Register’s board has called for withdrawal as soon as it’s safely possible.

 

But with McCain, Americans would know what they’re getting. He doesn’t parse words. And on tough calls, he usually lands on the side of goodness — of compassion for illegal immigrants, of concern for the environment for future generations.

 

The force of John McCain’s moral authority could go a long way toward restoring Americans’ trust in government and inspiring new generations to believe in the goodness and greatness of America.

Pretty good language. It should be pointed out that these are not huge endorsements in Republican primaries, unlike McCain’s endorsement in the Union Leader. That said, any candidate would be touting them.

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National Review endorses Romney

December 12, 2007 – 10:16 am

Yesterday, National Review endorsed Mitt Romney. This came as a surprise to no one, and it’s significance is unclear. It seems that the operative parts of the endorsement are:

Our guiding principle has always been to select the most conservative viable candidate. In our judgment, that candidate is Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts. Unlike some other candidates in the race, Romney is a full-spectrum conservative: a supporter of free-market economics and limited government, moral causes such as the right to life and the preservation of marriage, and a foreign policy based on the national interest. While he has not talked much about the importance of resisting ethnic balkanization — none of the major candidates has — he supports enforcing the immigration laws and opposes amnesty. Those are important steps in the right direction. …

Romney is an intelligent, articulate, and accomplished former businessman and governor. At a time when voters yearn for competence and have soured on Washington because too often the Bush administration has not demonstrated it, Romney offers proven executive skill. He has demonstrated it in everything he has done in his professional life, and his tightly organized, disciplined campaign is no exception. He himself has shown impressive focus and energy. …

More than the other primary candidates, Romney has President Bush’s virtues and avoids his flaws. His moral positions, and his instincts on taxes and foreign policy, are the same. But he is less inclined to federal activism, less tolerant of overspending, better able to defend conservative positions in debate, and more likely to demand performance from his subordinates. A winning combination, by our lights. In this most fluid and unpredictable Republican field, we vote for Mitt Romney.

They seem to be saying that Romney has checked all the boxes and checked them best. This point was made in a National Review piece last month that described Romney as:

Romney and Thompson, meanwhile, are fighting over who is the most conventional, paint-by-numbers conservative circa 1987. Creative domestic policy is off the table.

Ramesh and Lowry made the argument that the party by the old "circa 1987" model is broken. The issues of today and tomorrow are not the issues of 1987 and at least some people at NRO understand that.  What about todays issues? We have globalization, technology, and competition. Romney has good stories to tell on some of these. However, the most defining issue of today’s conservative movement and Republican Party may be national security. And as Ari Richter, the managing editor of the Concord Monitor, points out:

But it’s nonetheless striking that in the first contested Republican primary after 9/11 — and while we remain at war — NR’s editors decided foreign policy experience was not a prerequisite. (See, by contrast, the Union Leader.) Who would have guessed that NR’s endorsement would mention the word "Iraq" once (in the section on McCain!) and the words "Iran," "Islam" and "terrorist" (or variations thereof) not at all?

In other words, in a time that most conservatives think the war in Iraq and the broader War on Terror is the number one issue, National Review doesn’t discuss the issues and reverts to check boxes.

What does that tell us about the conservative movement?

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Huckabee’s pastors and unions

December 10, 2007 – 1:46 am

Marc Ambinder has written about the family groups and pastors groups that are meeting to help Mike Huckabee in a bunch of the early primary states:

Sources say that the Renewal Project, whose organizers are partial to Mike Huckabee, is planning three pastors conferences in Florida, one conference in New Hampshire (scheduled for Dec. 13 and 14) two in South Carolina and at least on in Michigan.

Some of Huckabee’s opponents are complaining:

Huckabee’s opponents suspect the Project is a campaign adjunct in disguise. Its backers are wealthy and anonymous. Last week in Des Moines, they paid for 350 pastors to stay at downtown hotels, fed them good meals and paid Newt Gingrich’s speakers fee. …

And short of proof of coordination, it’s all legal.

Of course, Republicans are used to seeing this, although not always in Republican primaries. We normally see it in general elections. From the unions. Oh yeah. And Huckabee has unions too. For example, the Machinists. Or, perhaps, the teachers, at least in New Hampshire.

In a Republican primary, the unions don’t have numbers like they do in other states. But they have bodies. Lots of bodies. Homeschoolers, evangelicals, and unions are a powerful, powerful combination.

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Union Leader endorses McCain; Romney goes negative

December 1, 2007 – 7:13 pm

Drudge is reporting that the NH Union Leader is endorsing John McCain tomorrow. My gut is that, as newspaper endorsements go, this is a relatively big deal. The UL is influential in NH, and it can also drive local media.

For a while people thought that Mitt Romney was going to get this endorsement. It was long the conventional wisdom that Judd Gregg would go with Romney, and Joe McQuaid, the UL editor, is very close to Gregg. In fact, NH sources tell me, McQuaid called Gregg to tell him about the endorsement, as a courtesy and recognition of their long friendship. Unfortunately, the Romney campaign had no such deference to the friendship. They leaked the story to Drudge and started moving around negative material on McCain.

Typical Romney scorched-earth tactics. Of course, if the recent Fox News poll is any indication, Romney may end up with something to worry about in NH.

Of course, it seemed that a McCain endorsement was likely. They had whacked Fred Thompson repeatedly. McQuaid is very pro-life, and so Rudy was out of the question. And McQuaid had attacked Romney on abortion:

CAN PRO-LIFE Americans count on Mitt Romney to protect the unborn? Maybe, but Romney has not been convincing on this point. …

That is not reassuring. It is a tacit admission that he told the people of Massachusetts what they wanted to hear, essentially saying he would govern according to state law and not his own personal beliefs, but then governing according to those personal beliefs. …

Romney has given two accounts of his changing views on abortion. One is that he was pro-choice until 2005, when he became pro-life after researching stem cell issues. The other is that he was personally pro-life but refused to impose his views on the people of Massachusetts.

Both cannot be true. Which is it? We are not sure we care. But we do care that Romney has two stories that don’t mesh and appears to have inadvertently admitted to taking a position on this issue because it was politically expedient to do so.

In Iowa, Romney’s line that he is tired of people being "holier than thou" because they’ve been pro-life longer than he has was a good one. But it’s not about who’s been pro-life longer. It’s about whether Romney really is pro-life. Despite his assurances, we, along with many conservatives, are not convinced he is.

What happens if the UL really goes after Romney? An extended attack on Romney’s credibility could do a lot of damage. And there’s plenty of material.

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Huckabee consolidates the religious right

November 11, 2007 – 4:33 pm

This morning on Tucker, Charmaine Yoest said, approximately:

People are talking about endorsements from the Christian movement. and if they are not reporting at all that Don Wildeman, the founder of the American Family Association, a heavyweight on the Christian right that he came out this week for Huckabee. and people are not talking about that.

Well. Let me talk about it and put it in some context. Wildeman is also the founder and leader of the Arlington Group. A phenomenal get. But not the only one.

Friday, a bunch of Southern Baptist leaders endorsed Mike Huckabee. Now, Huckabee is a Southern Baptist pastor, so this might not seem surprising, but Huckabee is on the moderate side of the SBC world. As one friend put it, "this is the SBC version of Brad Smith endorsing John McCain." This is about people who have historical grievances with Huckabee lining up behind him.

And who is this Yoest person praising Huckabee and telling people about his great get? She is the communications director for the Family Research Council, the advocacy arm of the James Dobson media empire.

Oh yeah. And the American Spectator and Jonathan Martin are reporting that Dobson is going to endorse Huckabee. And one of his communications underlings is praising Huckabee. And independent sources at FRC confirmed the story to me, but say that the Mitt Romney supporters at FRC are fighting it. Indeed, Paul Weyrich and some others are denying it.

That sounds like a consolidation of the religious right in a way that could be worth a good 5-10% in places like Iowa and South Carolina. And in Iowa, Huckabee is in 2nd, and this kind of thing could include votes coming out of Romney’s hide.  In South Carolina, it is less clear, but it seems likely that it would come out of the hides of both Romney and Fred Thompson.

Earlier on, I said that it seemed that the religious right had dated Mitt Romney, but decided to marry Fred Thompson. It appears that I spoke to soon. It seems that Fred might have jilted them at the altar, and they found a new person.

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Christian right endorsements flow

November 7, 2007 – 9:04 pm

It has been a pretty remarkable two days in terms of endorsements:

Where is the Fred Thompson endorsement?

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Brownback endorsement: Rudy and Romney

October 30, 2007 – 7:55 am

Last week, Sam Brownback met with Rudy Giuliani. Deal Hudson has an account that concurs with what I have heard from Brownback associates and with what Brownback’s people have told outside groups:

Brownback caused a controversy by accepting an invitation from Rudy Giuliani to discuss life issues following the Senator’s decision to drop out of the presidential race. 

Giuliani had called Brownback the day after his announcement to ask for his endorsement.  Brownback started to say "no" when Giuliani asked him if at least he would come by and talk about it.

Brownback accepted the invitation, had the chat, but, as expected, did not issue an endorsement. 

A rumor rushed around the Internet that Brownback had "compromised" his principles, etc.

Jim Bopp, Jr., general counsel of National Right to Life said some pretty ugly things about Brownback.  The management of NRTL had to dissavow Bopp’s comments in a press statement issued later that same day.

Very messy.  And all because Brownback was willing to listen to what Giuliani had to say, like any civilized person ought to do. 

Brownback listened, concluded Giuliani was not willing to change his positions, stepped in front of the cameras with the Mayor and said, basically, that they agreed to disagree.

There has also been some speculation that Mitt Romney will get Brownback’s endorsement. However, Romney and Brownback have been unable to schedule a meeting. When I asked a Brownback associate about the possibility of an endorsement I was told, "It is typical Romney. He says nice things while his campaign is attacking us and lying about our supporters." Followup questions revealed that he was referring to the Jim Bopp letter mentioned above, and the Romney campaign’s claim to have picked up the endorsement of "Michigan Brownback Campaign Leaders." It turned out that the "leaders" were unknown to the Brownback campaign and hadn’t endorsed Brownback anyways.

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Who’s more Hollywood?

September 6, 2007 – 10:48 am

There are two places that conservatives dislike more than New York City, at least prior to 9-11. One is San Francisco, which is one of the punch lines of Mitt Romney’s immigration Drudge ad from yesterday. The other is, of course, Hollywood.

And that’s why you have to wonder why Rudy Giuliani is dropping endorsements from famous Hollywood actors like Robert Duvall and Ron Silver this week. I mean, the Leno thing puts the whole Hollywood story on Fred Thompson. Does Rudy want a part of the spotlight?

Is he just another divo, like his late pal Pavarotti? (I didn’t know that they were friends. I admire that, and friendship deserves memorialization)

But should Rudy be reminding us that he is a Hollywood-loving, (effete?) opera-loving New Yorker?

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