MoveOn attacking Brownback too?

February 10, 2007 – 8:56 am

Doesn’t this help Sam Brownback? I don’t understand MoveOn.

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Brownback comes online…

February 8, 2007 – 10:18 am

Redstate’s Leon Wolf has signed on to Brownback. We hope to hear more about Sam Brownback soon.

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The Romney attack on Brownback

January 29, 2007 – 9:09 am

I have been stunned by the attack on Sam Brownback over the last week by Mitt Romney partisans on abortion. The substance of the allegations is that Brownback was not a solid pro-lifer in 1994 and may have been pro-choice.

The Romney people have latched on to this as a way to defend themselves from attacks that they are flip-flopping on abortion. They claim that if Sam Brownback is allowed his conversion, then so should Mitt Romney.

There are several problems with this:

First, there is the issue of recency. As a recent Weekly Standard article (apparently the article was passed around at NR’s conservative gathering in Washington this weekend. Is this going to become a theme of grassroots assaults on Romney’s record?) has demonstrated, Romney was actively pro-choice much more recently. Indeed, Romney was even trying to get the support of NARAL with lines like:

"You need someone like me in Washington." Moreover, those present recall that Romney argued that his election would make him credible in the Republican party nationally and thus help "sensible" Republicans like him overshadow more conservative elements in the GOP.

Romney was not just a moderate Republican, he wanted to be a leader of the moderate Republicans against the conservatives. And the level of activism continued into his administration.

Second, there’s the issue of genuineness and expediency. A pro-Romney blogger on Evangelicals for Mitt recently attacked Brownback, but also walked into an anti-Romney self-trap. Nathan Burd said:

Contrast that with Senator Brownback’s odd explanation for his 1994 views on life. He was pro-life, but he didn’t want to say he was pro-life? Huh?

However, Mitt Romney has the same problem. As has been noted, Romney claimed to be pro-choice in 1994 and again in 2002. But it is not well understood that be backed off this position when he was flirting with running for Governor of Utah in 2001. In fact, he wrote in a letter to the Salt Lake Tribune (full letter at end of post):

I do not wish to be labeled pro choice. I have never felt comfortable with the labels associated with the abortion issue. Because the Olympics is not about politics, I plan to keep my views on political issues to myself.

So, again, the problem for Romney is not that he went from pro-choice or "indifferent" to pro-life, which is the substance of their attack against Brownback. He went from pro-choice to somewhere between pro-life or indifferent to vociferously pro-choice to pro-life.

Then, there’s the issue of believability. One pro-life activist characterized his trouble with Romney’s conversion like this:

What I don’t understand about Romney’s “conversion” is how he contributes it to when he was studying the embryonic stem-cell research issue. I don’t understand how a tiny human embryo was able to “convert” him, but a visibly developing child in the womb wasn’t able to. Just does not make much sense to me.

Finally, the conservative movement has to ask itself a question: what price is too high. As another activist says (emphasis in the original):

We cannot give Mitt Romney a pass on this solely because he’s running against John McCain. To do so would be being dishonest to ourselves, the conservative movement, and any notions that honesty and integrity matter in politics.

This blogger continues by questioning Mitt Romney’s integrity in general. If the flip-flopper moniker (which now seems well settled in the press) moves into a problem with Romney’s integrity, he is toast.
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Iowa Caucuses are weird, or why Sam Brownback should be taken seriously

January 28, 2007 – 3:22 pm

In 2000, the Iowa Caucus results were:

Candidate %
Bush 41
Forbes 30
Keyes 14
Bauer 9
McCain 5

Only 2 of the top 5 candidates were even serious contenders in later states. Fifty-four percent of the vote went to people who were clearly dead in the water. (and 5% went to a guy who didn’t campaign in the state). The 3 candidates that earned 54% were all candidates of the religious right. This is not mysterious. I have not been to Iowa in January, but it is cold. Investment bankers don’t go drive in the cold to stand in a room for hours at a time.

There are several implications here. First, electability may not matter so much to actual Iowa caucusgoers. On the other hand, organization does. And, third, the religious vote does. As I have noted before, Sam Brownback and John McCain have split the major pro-life activists. Mitt Romney is working on the county chairmen. Rudy Giuliani probably has to fight with Romney for the County Chairmen apparatus and with McCain for the moderates, as many as actually come. And Mike Huckabee will share the fight for religious conservatives.

The upshot is that Sam Brownback could credibly knock off one of the three front runners, McCain, Giuliani, and Romney. Huckabee’s entrance may make that harder. But we can assume that there will be a 4th-place finish for a GOP frontrunner in Iowa, effectively killing his candidacy. Who will it be? And does Huckabee’s entrance make that less likely by taking votes from Brownback? Or does he also take votes from Romney?

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More thoughts on Diageo/Hotline poll: Security

January 24, 2007 – 10:02 am

A couple of days I wrote on the results of the Diageo/Hotline poll. Most people have focused on the Presidential results. BlogPI has written about McCain’s credibility on security with Republicans. I started looking at how GOPers prioritize issues, and thought it had some interesting presidential implications. So here’s the data:

Issue % Issue %
Oppose Iraq 19 Fear 6
Support Iraq 18 Illegal Immigration 6
Terrorism 10 Religious and Family decline 5
Moral Values 7 Healthcare 4

For 47% of self-identified GOPers, national security is the highest priority. Add in "Fear" and you get 53%, a majority. Simply put, that is why Rudy Giuliani and John McCain are the frontrunners. It is not just name ID. Their credibility with voters is precisely on the issues that the GOP electorate most cares about. It will be interesting to see how the other candidates break through this wall.

By coming out against the Surge, Sam Brownback is trying to shoot for that 19% that are opposed to the war. One could imagine that a group of those voters, combined with a good chunk of the 7% moral values and 5% religious/moral/family decline voters, could be a powerful voting block. Furthermore, an anti-surge GOP Presidential nominee will get a lot of free media as the issue moves through Congress.

You can also see how Mitt Romney is trying to put together a coalition. He will try to split the moral values and conservative voters with Brownback. He is the only major candidate (unless you really count Newt) who has expressed opposition to President Bush’s guest working plan, giving him a credible shot with those voters (6%). (although you have to wonder if Tancredo entering will have much of an impact in western Iowa on this issue. To make it more fun, Tancredo even looks like the local congressman, Steve King, who is equally outspoken as Tancredo on almost all these issues). Romney can also talk to a lot of the healthcare crowd (4%), although one wonders how much of that is doctors. I don’t know where they come down on Romney’s healthcare plan. It also highlights why Romney has to get more international credibility through speeche, like he did earlier this week. (one is left to wonder what Romney would have done if George Allen was in the race. Where would he have gone for votes?)

Of course, voters vote based on a lot of things other than issues. But voters are one important way that candidates reach out to voters.

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Brownback and the March for Life

January 23, 2007 – 8:24 am

It had been clear from the press releases that came out that Sam Brownback was trying to set himself up as the pro-life candidate with the events that his campaign planned for the March for Life. So I thought that would be interesting, and I was around the Hill around the March. So I have some thoughts about this.

First, of all, Brownback literature and signs were getting passed out. No other campaign appeared to be present. While there were plenty of other things going on yesterday at the March, the Sam Brownback show was the main event. Afterwards at his reception at the Capitol Hill Club, he was signing up volunteers. At the Capitol South Metro, there was a huge Brownback for President banner, literature, reminders to go to the reception across the street, and abundant "thank yous" from staff. The March could be viewed as a Brownback campaign event.

Brownback appears to be trying to become the leader of the pro-life movement. He is trying to become the authoritative voice on the issue in the Presidential race, and the person by whom pro-life credentials are judged. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. If he succeeds, he will become a force to be reckoned with in the GOP primary. Especially in Iowa and South Carolina. Not only is he trying to place himself to the right of everyone else (with immigration being his only problem), but he is trying to become the only acceptable candidate if social conservative issues are your highest priority. I am waiting to see how this works with voters, but I think that this could be a powerful message with activists, which would explain his successes in signing up people in Iowa and South Carolina.

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More endorsements

January 15, 2007 – 3:32 pm

More endorsements:

  1. From The Fix. RGA Vice-Chair and MN Governor Tim Pawlenty for McCain. Lobbyist and former Congressman (also MN) Vin Webber to Romney.
  2. From Michigan Cooler. MI National Committeeman, Chuck Yob, and National Committeewoman, Holly Hughes, are for McCain. This is only sort of news.
  3. From The Shot. Brownback picks up two South Carolina social conservatives.

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Explaining Brownback on the war

January 12, 2007 – 8:05 am

There has been some debate over Sam Brownback’s position on the Iraq war.

First, of all, the visuals were pretty good. By announcing his position from Iraq, he got a certain kind of credibility. A sort of, "I’m here, I can see what’s going on, and I think it’s a lousy idea."

Second, there’s some political logic to it. Brownback may be trying to lock down his constituency. As TNR’s The Plank noted:

More interestingly, the move turns out to be pretty welcome among Brownback’s desired base of social conservatives. While 52 percent of Republicans support the surge according to a just-released AP/Ipsos poll, some 60 percent of white evangelicals oppose it, as do 56 percent of self-described conservatives.

I’m willing to bet that Iowa caucus-going conservatives are even more anti-war than that.

And with MoveOn’s ads attacking McCain next week in Iowa, it will be interesting to see where Romney goes. More squeeze on him as I have discussed before, and John Mercurio echoed yesterday.

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MA Pro-Lifers prefer Brownback over Romney

January 8, 2007 – 2:36 pm

This is from a Brownback press release.

Is it me or are Massachusetts Republicans and conservatives not so fond of their governor? First, Mass Resistance hates him. Then, he loses his own College Republicans to McCain. Then he loses his own Senate Minority Leader. Now he loses his social conservatives:

In order to preserve traditional values and actually win back ground in the ongoing fight for our culture, we need a leader who can articulate and fight for our values with compassion, optimism, and consistency. We know consistent leadership when we see it. For this Leading Massachusetts Social Conservatives Endorse Brownback.

A friend of mine from Massachusetts told me recently that the way to go up in the party now is to attack Romney.

Even K-Lo, the Great Disciple, is becoming convinced that her man is a flip-flopper.

The release is after the jump.
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Romney and Brownback finish exploring

January 7, 2007 – 10:35 pm

Sam Brownback and Mitt Romney both seem to have made the decision to formally announce that they are running. Both spoke at Awakening, and they will both announce in the next week. Romney with donors in Boston. Brownback with Right-to-Life activists in Kansas before they leave for the March for Life in DC, with a reception for marchers on the 22nd. I can’t wait to see what paper is being passed out at the March.

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