Comments on: Romney is doing better in Iowa than you think http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/12/18/romney-is-doing-better-in-iowa-than-you-think/ Covering the 2008 election Sun, 23 Nov 2008 12:22:16 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.5 by: race42008.com » Blog Archive » Race 4 2008 Early Morning Essential Reads http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/12/18/romney-is-doing-better-in-iowa-than-you-think/#comment-39718 Wed, 19 Dec 2007 19:51:34 +0000 http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/12/18/romney-is-doing-better-in-iowa-than-you-think/#comment-39718 [...] Romney is doing better in Iowa than you think [...] […] Romney is doing better in Iowa than you think […]

]]> by: eye http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/12/18/romney-is-doing-better-in-iowa-than-you-think/#comment-39713 Wed, 19 Dec 2007 17:02:11 +0000 http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/12/18/romney-is-doing-better-in-iowa-than-you-think/#comment-39713 Elbeau, Thanks for commenting and confirming those numbers. That seems about right to me too. Soren Elbeau,

Thanks for commenting and confirming those numbers. That seems about right to me too.

Soren

]]> by: Elbeau http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/12/18/romney-is-doing-better-in-iowa-than-you-think/#comment-39712 Wed, 19 Dec 2007 16:48:02 +0000 http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/12/18/romney-is-doing-better-in-iowa-than-you-think/#comment-39712 330 per congregation is right in line with our regular numbers per congregation. In most parts of the US, including Iowa I believe, you will find about 50% of our members in attendance each Sunday. That puts 165 people in the average Iowa church each week, which is right on target for how large the church likes to keep it's congregations. So, Let's take the 22,500 members and divide by 2 to get the "Active" members = 11,250. 50% Caucus turnout from that number gives us 5,625...still an impressive number. Then there's the fact that many of our less-active members still identify themselves with the church...so maybe throw another 500-1000 supporters from that group. The numbers definitely work in Romney's favor. 330 per congregation is right in line with our regular numbers per congregation. In most parts of the US, including Iowa I believe, you will find about 50% of our members in attendance each Sunday. That puts 165 people in the average Iowa church each week, which is right on target for how large the church likes to keep it’s congregations.

So, Let’s take the 22,500 members and divide by 2 to get the “Active” members = 11,250. 50% Caucus turnout from that number gives us 5,625…still an impressive number.

Then there’s the fact that many of our less-active members still identify themselves with the church…so maybe throw another 500-1000 supporters from that group. The numbers definitely work in Romney’s favor.

]]> by: race42008.com » 2007 » December » 19 http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/12/18/romney-is-doing-better-in-iowa-than-you-think/#comment-39711 Wed, 19 Dec 2007 16:14:27 +0000 http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/12/18/romney-is-doing-better-in-iowa-than-you-think/#comment-39711 [...] Jim G., Jonathan Martin, and Soren Dayton are talking up the Mormon factor in the upcoming primaries, particularly in Iowa. [...] […] Jim G., Jonathan Martin, and Soren Dayton are talking up the Mormon factor in the upcoming primaries, particularly in Iowa. […]

]]> by: race42008.com » Blog Archive » About those Mormon voters http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/12/18/romney-is-doing-better-in-iowa-than-you-think/#comment-39710 Wed, 19 Dec 2007 14:21:54 +0000 http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/12/18/romney-is-doing-better-in-iowa-than-you-think/#comment-39710 [...] Jim G., Jonathan Martin, and Soren Dayton are talking up the Mormon factor in the upcoming primaries, particularly in Iowa. [...] […] Jim G., Jonathan Martin, and Soren Dayton are talking up the Mormon factor in the upcoming primaries, particularly in Iowa. […]

]]> by: ee2793 http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/12/18/romney-is-doing-better-in-iowa-than-you-think/#comment-39645 Wed, 19 Dec 2007 01:50:41 +0000 http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/12/18/romney-is-doing-better-in-iowa-than-you-think/#comment-39645 Soren, your little McCain Hucklenut strategery expectations game playing is laughable. Soren, your little McCain Hucklenut strategery expectations game playing is laughable.

]]> by: The upside of Mitt’s Mormonism http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/12/18/romney-is-doing-better-in-iowa-than-you-think/#comment-39611 Tue, 18 Dec 2007 19:01:14 +0000 http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/12/18/romney-is-doing-better-in-iowa-than-you-think/#comment-39611 [...] Elizabeth Holmes of the WSJ, who covers Mitt, has a smart piece getting at this point and has a great anecdote to back it up.  Soren Dayton, no Romney fan, crunches the numbers and shows what an advantage turing out even a small portion of Mormons could mean for Romney on caucus night. [...] […] Elizabeth Holmes of the WSJ, who covers Mitt, has a smart piece getting at this point and has a great anecdote to back it up.  Soren Dayton, no Romney fan, crunches the numbers and shows what an advantage turing out even a small portion of Mormons could mean for Romney on caucus night. […]

]]> by: Team Romney’s Iowa expectations ruse, the Mormon “orange plan” « who is willard milton romney? http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/12/18/romney-is-doing-better-in-iowa-than-you-think/#comment-39609 Tue, 18 Dec 2007 17:50:54 +0000 http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/12/18/romney-is-doing-better-in-iowa-than-you-think/#comment-39609 [...] We must now revise our hypothesis. Eye of eyeon08.com has developed evidence to suggest an alternative reading of events on the ground in Iowa based on the Mormon support for Romney. Regard: ... In other words, the very high end of typical turnout is around 10%. IA Mormons are looking at 50%. Assuming that, under normal circumstances, Mormons participate in higher numbers, perhaps 20% would normally participate in the caucus, (just a guess) that would mean 2,800 votes. Romney will be beating that by at least 2.5x. [...] […] We must now revise our hypothesis. Eye of eyeon08.com has developed evidence to suggest an alternative reading of events on the ground in Iowa based on the Mormon support for Romney. Regard: … In other words, the very high end of typical turnout is around 10%. IA Mormons are looking at 50%. Assuming that, under normal circumstances, Mormons participate in higher numbers, perhaps 20% would normally participate in the caucus, (just a guess) that would mean 2,800 votes. Romney will be beating that by at least 2.5x. […]

]]> by: CALIFORNIA YANKEE http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/12/18/romney-is-doing-better-in-iowa-than-you-think/#comment-39608 Tue, 18 Dec 2007 17:16:40 +0000 http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/12/18/romney-is-doing-better-in-iowa-than-you-think/#comment-39608 <strong>Romney's Sleeper Cell...</strong> With all the mania over the Huckaboom, one could be forgiven for concluding the Republican presidential race is all over in Iowa but for the counting and writing the "Huckabee Wins" headline. It is still two weeks before Iowans tell the country who s... Romney’s Sleeper Cell…

With all the mania over the Huckaboom, one could be forgiven for concluding the Republican presidential race is all over in Iowa but for the counting and writing the “Huckabee Wins” headline. It is still two weeks before Iowans tell the country who s…

]]> by: FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog » Mitt Romney Watch: The Mormon Affinity Vote and Iowa Expectations http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/12/18/romney-is-doing-better-in-iowa-than-you-think/#comment-39607 Tue, 18 Dec 2007 14:53:41 +0000 http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/12/18/romney-is-doing-better-in-iowa-than-you-think/#comment-39607 [...] There are a couple of pieces this morning about Mitt Romney, Iowa election expectations and the Mormon Affinity vote for Mitt. [...] […] There are a couple of pieces this morning about Mitt Romney, Iowa election expectations and the Mormon Affinity vote for Mitt. […]

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