Comments on: Romney is doing better in Iowa than you think

By: race42008.com » Blog Archive » Race 4 2008 Early Morning Essential Reads

Wed, 19 Dec 2007 19:51:34 +0000

[...] Romney is doing better in Iowa than you think [...]

By: eye

eye — Wed, 19 Dec 2007 17:02:11 +0000

Elbeau,

Thanks for commenting and confirming those numbers. That seems about right to me too.

Soren

By: Elbeau

Elbeau — Wed, 19 Dec 2007 16:48:02 +0000

330 per congregation is right in line with our regular numbers per congregation. In most parts of the US, including Iowa I believe, you will find about 50% of our members in attendance each Sunday. That puts 165 people in the average Iowa church each week, which is right on target for how large the church likes to keep it’s congregations.

So, Let’s take the 22,500 members and divide by 2 to get the “Active” members = 11,250. 50% Caucus turnout from that number gives us 5,625…still an impressive number.

Then there’s the fact that many of our less-active members still identify themselves with the church…so maybe throw another 500-1000 supporters from that group. The numbers definitely work in Romney’s favor.

By: race42008.com » 2007 » December » 19

race42008.com » 2007 » December » 19 — Wed, 19 Dec 2007 16:14:27 +0000

[...] Jim G., Jonathan Martin, and Soren Dayton are talking up the Mormon factor in the upcoming primaries, particularly in Iowa. [...]

By: race42008.com » Blog Archive » About those Mormon voters

race42008.com » Blog Archive » About those Mormon voters — Wed, 19 Dec 2007 14:21:54 +0000

[...] Jim G., Jonathan Martin, and Soren Dayton are talking up the Mormon factor in the upcoming primaries, particularly in Iowa. [...]

By: ee2793

ee2793 — Wed, 19 Dec 2007 01:50:41 +0000

Soren, your little McCain Hucklenut strategery expectations game playing is laughable.

By: The upside of Mitt’s Mormonism

The upside of Mitt’s Mormonism — Tue, 18 Dec 2007 19:01:14 +0000

[...] Elizabeth Holmes of the WSJ, who covers Mitt, has a smart piece getting at this point and has a great anecdote to back it up. Soren Dayton, no Romney fan, crunches the numbers and shows what an advantage turing out even a small portion of Mormons could mean for Romney on caucus night. [...]

By: Team Romney’s Iowa expectations ruse, the Mormon “orange plan” « who is willard milton romney?

Tue, 18 Dec 2007 17:50:54 +0000

[...] We must now revise our hypothesis. Eye of eyeon08.com has developed evidence to suggest an alternative reading of events on the ground in Iowa based on the Mormon support for Romney. Regard: … In other words, the very high end of typical turnout is around 10%. IA Mormons are looking at 50%. Assuming that, under normal circumstances, Mormons participate in higher numbers, perhaps 20% would normally participate in the caucus, (just a guess) that would mean 2,800 votes. Romney will be beating that by at least 2.5x. [...]

By: CALIFORNIA YANKEE

CALIFORNIA YANKEE — Tue, 18 Dec 2007 17:16:40 +0000

Romney’s Sleeper Cell…

With all the mania over the Huckaboom, one could be forgiven for concluding the Republican presidential race is all over in Iowa but for the counting and writing the “Huckabee Wins” headline. It is still two weeks before Iowans tell the country who s…

By: FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog » Mitt Romney Watch: The Mormon Affinity Vote and Iowa Expectations

Tue, 18 Dec 2007 14:53:41 +0000

[...] There are a couple of pieces this morning about Mitt Romney, Iowa election expectations and the Mormon Affinity vote for Mitt. [...]