Romney’s electability problem

Survey of 800 Likely Voters
August 6-7 and August 8-9, 2007

Candidate

Def. FOR

Def. AGAINST

Net

Obama 29% 35% -6
Clinton 33% 43% -10
Giuliani 26% 37% -11
Thompson 20% 33% -13
Edwards 20% 38% -18
McCain 16% 35% -19
Romney 16% 44% -28

The argument for Mitt Romney being the frontrunner is building. His successes in the early states are remarkable. However, he does have a problem. Is he actually electable in a general? A Rasmussen poll suggests that the answer is a clear no.

Rasmussen has a monthly poll measuring the size of the electorate who won’t vote for someone. You can see the summarized results to the right. Hillary is clearly still a polarizing figure, but Mitt Romney is too:

The Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 44% of Likely Voters would definitely vote against Romney if he’s on the ballot in 2008. That’s a point higher than the 43% who would definitely vote against Clinton.

The bad news for Romney is that that is the good news. Here’s the bad news:

In terms of partisan reaction, it’s interesting to note that 25% of Republicans say they would definitely vote against Romney while 22% of Democrats would vote against Edwards.

2004 was a squeaker. Bush won by the skin of his teeth, with something like 90% of Republicans behind him. If Romney is losing 1-in-4, he is in deep, deep trouble.

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This entry was written by eye and posted on August 22, 2007 at 11:41 am. Follow any comments here with the RSS feed for this post. Post a comment or leave a trackback: Trackback URL.

One Comment

  1. blackrepublican
    Posted August 22, 2007 at 3:21 pm | Permalink

    Count me in as one of those Republicans who would not vote for Romney or would only do so after drinking heavily (j/k… kinda). I’d probably vote for a 3rd party or stay home altogether.

    But then again I live in Massachusetts and considering how much damage Romney inflicted on the Republican party, my vote wouldn’t matter even less to the electoral outcome.

9 Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. By who is willard milton romney? on 22 Aug 2007 at 1:21 pm

    Rasmussen poll: romney unelectable in general election; polarizing figure; 25% of republicans say they would definately vote against Romney…

    As reported by eyeon08.com.
    eyeon08.com quoting Rasmussen:
    “In terms of partisan reaction, it’s interesting to note that 25% of Republicans say they would definitely vote against Romney while 22% of Democrats would vote against Edwards” &…

  2. By UNCoRRELATED on 22 Aug 2007 at 3:31 pm

    Creating an Electibility Problem…

    Rasmussen reports the results of a telephone poll (and none of the methodology), and declares Mitt Romney unelectable. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has finally surpassed New York Senator Hillary Clinton in the polls. Unfortunately for Romn…

  3. By Will Rove Need to Change His Talking Points… » Comments From Left Field on 22 Aug 2007 at 3:58 pm

    […] Others blogging this  article: eyeon08.com, Wall Street Journal, JammieWearingFool, The Corner and DownWithTyranny! Share and Enjoy: These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and discover new web pages. […]

  4. By The Crossed Pond » Speaking of Polling... on 22 Aug 2007 at 4:25 pm

    […] The answer might surprise you. posted in: Main […]

  5. By Club For Growth Releases Paper on Romney: Another Mixed Record on 22 Aug 2007 at 6:10 pm

    […] A mixed record like this is one reason why Romney has a credibility problem even among Republicans. Hillary Clinton has high negatives, but they’re little when compared to Mitt Romney. (Hat tip to Andrew Sullivan). 1 in 4 Republicans say they would definitely vote against Mitt Romney at this point. Those numbers are simply astonishing. If Karl Rove is right about Hillary Clinton, the same has to apply to Mitt Romney at this point. And it’s based on a mixed record that Romney keeps trying to gloss over, which in turn only enhances the flip flop reputation. I have to wonder if Romney simply peaked too early. […]

  6. By Humbly suggested: You’re all wrong, always « The State of Nature on 23 Aug 2007 at 1:26 am

    […] While Hillary’s numbers seem mundane compared to other established politicians, it’s surprising to see her negative marks matched by a lesser known candidate, as a recent Rasmussen poll shows for Republican Mitt Romney, who registers a 44 percent “definitely against” rating, with only a 13 percent “definitely for” number. […]

  7. By For President Info » Blog Archive » ? for President? on 23 Aug 2007 at 2:36 am

    […] Eyeon08.com: “The argument for Mitt Romney being the frontrunner is building. His successes in the early states are remarkable. However, he does have a problem. Is he actually electable in a general? A Rasmussen poll suggests that the answer is a clear no.” […]

  8. By eyeon08.com » What does state general election polling tell us? on 23 Aug 2007 at 11:55 am

    […] Second, these numbers show some important differences. Even in the South, Giuliani is performing in a tier above the other first-tier candidates, while Romney is polling a tier below the other first tier candidates. Romneybots will argue that this is due to name ID, but Gallup polling consistently indicates that Thompson’s name ID is lower than Romney’s but his performance in polling is (often substantially) higher. This is yet more evidence that Romney’s electability problem is real. […]

  9. By Heading Right » Blog Archive » No, 25% of Republicans Will NOT Vote Against Mitt Romney on 29 Aug 2007 at 12:33 am

    […] Why do some people draw such broad, sweeping conclusions from polling data fourteen months before it matters, even if the source is credible? […]

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