Comments on: Bloomberg? Really? http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/05/16/bloomberg-really/ Covering the 2008 election Thu, 21 Aug 2008 19:26:28 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.5 by: Diane http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/05/16/bloomberg-really/#comment-30874 Thu, 17 May 2007 10:53:36 +0000 http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/05/16/bloomberg-really/#comment-30874 I think we face the very real possibility of having up to 4 parties/tickets that each garner at least 10% of the vote. We could have a Unity Party Ticket, an independent candidacy (like Bloomberg's), or a libertarian candidacy. I could see Ron Paul running as a libertarian, as he has in the past. Though he'd never win the republican nomination, I don't think we should discount the buzz he's gotten recently. I could see him being fairly popular with independents and maybe getting 10% in a general election. This really should worry republicans because I fear, as this Rasmussen poll indicates (thanks neil), that these candidates would primarily take support away from the republican candidate (though I could see some democratic supporters shifting towards a libertarian). The question, I think, is whether republicans like Bloomberg and Hagel would be willing to significantly increase the chances of a republican loss in order to make a point, further their own careers, or whatever else their motivation is. The GOP really needs to work to sew up these loose strands of the party that are drifting off (and that includes libertarian-leaning republicans who have probably drifted most). The democrats are going to be unified around their candidate, and their core of support is probably going to be solid no matter what. If one thing will guarantee a loss in 2008, it is disunity. We simply cannot afford it with such a tough election ahead. I think we face the very real possibility of having up to 4 parties/tickets that each garner at least 10% of the vote. We could have a Unity Party Ticket, an independent candidacy (like Bloomberg’s), or a libertarian candidacy. I could see Ron Paul running as a libertarian, as he has in the past. Though he’d never win the republican nomination, I don’t think we should discount the buzz he’s gotten recently. I could see him being fairly popular with independents and maybe getting 10% in a general election. This really should worry republicans because I fear, as this Rasmussen poll indicates (thanks neil), that these candidates would primarily take support away from the republican candidate (though I could see some democratic supporters shifting towards a libertarian). The question, I think, is whether republicans like Bloomberg and Hagel would be willing to significantly increase the chances of a republican loss in order to make a point, further their own careers, or whatever else their motivation is. The GOP really needs to work to sew up these loose strands of the party that are drifting off (and that includes libertarian-leaning republicans who have probably drifted most). The democrats are going to be unified around their candidate, and their core of support is probably going to be solid no matter what. If one thing will guarantee a loss in 2008, it is disunity. We simply cannot afford it with such a tough election ahead.

]]> by: eye http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/05/16/bloomberg-really/#comment-30668 Wed, 16 May 2007 21:12:57 +0000 http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/05/16/bloomberg-really/#comment-30668 the other thing is that McCain's numbers have gone up with independents recently. the other thing is that McCain’s numbers have gone up with independents recently.

]]> by: eye http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/05/16/bloomberg-really/#comment-30667 Wed, 16 May 2007 21:09:58 +0000 http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/05/16/bloomberg-really/#comment-30667 Thank you. I had been looking for that poll. I knew I had seen it... Thank you. I had been looking for that poll. I knew I had seen it…

]]> by: neil http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/05/16/bloomberg-really/#comment-30665 Wed, 16 May 2007 21:05:16 +0000 http://www.eyeon08.com/2007/05/16/bloomberg-really/#comment-30665 It certainly does intuitively seem that Bloomberg would siphon votes from the Democratic candidate, but the polling seems to indicate the opposite. <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/independent_bloomberg_candidacy_would_be_gop_spoiler" rel="nofollow">Rasmussen polled</a> Hillary vs. Giuliani and Hillary vs. McCain, both with and without Bloomberg as a third party. Both two-way races are tied; Hillary wins both three-way races by 9 points. I wish they'd polled with a Democrat other than Hillary, but I doubt the results would have been much different. My interpretation is that Republican voters are eager to vote for someone other than a Republican, as long as that person is not a Democrat (and especially as long as that person is not Hillary Clinton). It certainly does intuitively seem that Bloomberg would siphon votes from the Democratic candidate, but the polling seems to indicate the opposite.

Rasmussen polled Hillary vs. Giuliani and Hillary vs. McCain, both with and without Bloomberg as a third party. Both two-way races are tied; Hillary wins both three-way races by 9 points.

I wish they’d polled with a Democrat other than Hillary, but I doubt the results would have been much different. My interpretation is that Republican voters are eager to vote for someone other than a Republican, as long as that person is not a Democrat (and especially as long as that person is not Hillary Clinton).

]]>